While a poster made a good comparison of Destin to Orb in 2013, I will keep that theme going.....Is Danzing Candy coming into the race similar to the way Palace Malice came into the Belmont? PM, a son of Curlin, steadily improving with each race albeit, slower than others, caught a horribly sloppy track in KY Mike Smith let him run off hopelessly, only to return fresh with rest, a dry track, and a better set up to score in NY. Seems DC coming into the race off a similar flop where he cooked himself. Granted that\'s his style and PM sat off in NY (not to mention TAP going from Ky to Ny).....but at the price and a more friendly pace with that flop out of the way, why can\'t history repeat itself?
For two reasons that I can think of (1) DC is not a son of Curlin and (2) prior to the Derby,Palace Malice had already indicated he could relax off of the speed.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The Bull,
He can. He is a very viable longshot in the race.
Joe B.,
Palace Malice pressed a very fast pace in the Belmont, going 1 1/2. And DC doesn\'t have to, and SHOULD not rate in the Derby. He is the clear speed.
Rob
Palace Malice freaked with blinkers on in the Derby. They were off for the Belmont and I crushed that race.
DC is reportedly a head case. If he came unglued in front of the SA Derby crowd, imagine what he\'ll do in KY? Rank speed. Only proven at 1 1/16 mi.
Why would DC ever be asked to rate? He\'s the clear speed here. Is he as good as PM, probably not, but he doesn\'t need to be, this crop is slow, period.
At ~30-1 I personally see this horse as being the best value play in many many moons.
I mean arguing against him basically means you like a slower horse with a trip/pace disadvantage in the case of about 15 others.
He may finish up the track, but I\'ll still sleep well on saturday
Yes true on both accounts Joe B.....I did not mean both were sons of Curlin, but it was a reference to both being by a young sire, whose better races came later at 3 and beyond. I remember Twirling winning a turf route at DMR at 3 and then running huge in the Malibu in December.
I knew what you meant regarding a son of Curlin.
I agree that Twirling was a runner. Fast early if I remember correctly. I\'m far from a pedigree expert but that combined with the Songandaprayer on the dam side and from what I have seen doesn\'t add up for me.
Besides, with all the chatter I have heard about him (not only on this board), seriously doubting you see 20-1 on him. The lone speed in a slow field, hated the slop in last, expect to run back to prior number angles are all over the place.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I also would be surprised if he makes 20-1. Everyone seems to love him. Hard not to like the West Coasters this year. They seem to be stronger than their eastern counterparts.
All good points. At 6/1 the negatives are what id focus on, but at 15/1-20/1 there are enough positives to get excited. The cali horses being superior is part of my logic. There are 4 cali horses (Nyq, Exag, Mor Sp, and DC) and if it\'s true that they are a superior group (and I think they are), DC is the longest price of them, and has beaten them/run well vs them recently, Nyq excluded. It appears from Outwork\'s training he is going slower early and finishing strong late. Leads me to think they are not looking to hook up early in a duel with DC. Outwork is a load and really gets over the ground so easily. Seems to be doing fantastic from all my reports fwiw.
Speaking of Outwork....boy there are some major differences in Rags vs TG sheets on this one, but I will let TGJB hit on that in the seminar if he chooses (another free seminar tease for ya Jerry).
It is nearly impossible for a horse to get a big fig on Rags without sustaining substantial ground loss....BRILLIANT!
Outlook is being asked to do a lot in a short time. Repole a St.John\'s guy. Wood was primary in their plans.
Is that what one wants next week, especially after 2 gut busters one being at Tampa.
.....and the .023 batting Toddster thrown in for kicks.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Did the Rags miss the Wood again? My thought is that it is hard to mess up the Wood this year. The slowest one could make the Wood number is pair Outwork\'s last number. In doing this only Trojan improves and all other healthy 3 year olds go backwards.
Given ground lost Beyer has the Wood the same as TG.
The Rags gave Outwork an 8 for Tampa and an 11 for his Wood. Absolutely huge regression.
Chad,
The way Rags makes figs,can see it but neither fig is close to being reflective of Outwork\'s performances or the dynamics of either race. Both figs are not even close to reconciling with the other credible fig makers or the adjusted clock/pace adj,way too slow.
If you believe RAGS, the Wood was won with like a TG 7 and an adjusted Beyer of like 85.....hard to swallow, notwithstanding where Outwork finishes on Sat.
Mike
Mike, I am no expert by any means & defer to long time readers like urself. It truly baffled me but then the bomb maiden was right there 2. Interpretation going forward is the key im struggling with. Thx for the perspective on it .
Chad,
The Wood was a tough race, know Beyer took some creative license as perhaps did TGJB.Slow maiden finishing second a legit question but the vicious early pace was also.
There are always a few figs open for debate from the top guys, but Rags has way too many completely out there,alone on an island.
Mike
If one separates the Wood it becomes quite easy and it must be separated. 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th horses confirm the number (give or take a point).
And tremendous ground differential first to second. Actually beat him almost 6 lengths. That figure is right.
On the one hand: he runs an 8.5 in the SA Derby. TGI says his father\'s children run 5.25 worse on off tracks than fast ones. Before you shout that I can\'t just shortcut this, I know that, but we have to do something, so: let\'s say that of his 7.5 point bounce, 5.25 of the bounce points were owed to the slop. That leaves us with 2.25, or a small bounce, owed to him getting worked up in the gate and running off.
Since then he\'s done 6f in 1:12 and 5f in 59 4/5, both at SLR, a typically slow track. He\'s had 4 weeks off, and his father\'s children improve 5 points from 2 -> 3, his 2yo top was 4.5, so conceivably he could run a -0.5 without really breaking the mold, and he\'s already run a 1, so it wouldn\'t be a huge new top. at 29/1 (price presently available in LV), why not?
And then on the other, the Lexington Herald-Leader tweeted this just this morning: \"Me to Cliff Sise, trainer of Danzing Candy \"What did you see that made you press on to the Derby?\" Cliff: \"Owners.\"\"
Hopefully they bet a lot.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> Hopefully they bet a lot.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Well, at least I can predict the owner\'s exacta bet. Jim Bashor is a huge donor to USC. Even has a building there named after him on campus. (Danzing Candy to Trojan Nation).