I am curious your thoughts on Destin. Obviously his TG number for the TB Derby was huge, and his performance was flattered by subsequent wins by others (Outwork, Brody\'s Cause).
I remembered reading about TAP\'s runners off layoffs. There was a story last year from Beyer that shows he is 31% in stakes races off a layoff as opposed to 21% on what we would consider \"normal\" rest.(https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/04/29/todd-pletchers-kentucky-derby-failures/)
With such a huge new top in his last race, and no previous TG figure even close...can he recover during the 56 day layoff and pair that figure?
My answer (and some interesting stats) will come in the seminar.
Okay Richie, it\'s a tease, so what.
How many 3 yr old Pletcher runners in the past 10 years have run outrageous new tops in Florida and were retired by The Fourth of July?
Like I said, it\'s not that i don\'t buy/trust Destin\'s number (certainly support for it being right on with subsequent wins by BC and Outwork)---it\'s that i don\'t trust any Pletcher Florida 3yos bringing it elsewhere.
Easy toss. Let him beat me...there\'s always the next day.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Maybe the whole approach with Destin is based on Pletcher trying to learn from past mistakes? I would imagine he\'s quite aware of his record coming into the Derby out of GP preps.
Different set of circumstances, but looking at the buried fig of the 2012 5th place finisher and seeing 22-1 with good works, he\'s getting some of my money at 15-1 or better. TAP did get Danza to come back after a big jump, and that was three weeks rest. Tossing his Lecomte as that was 1st blinks, definitely not a strong TAP angle.
Interesting that the 2 TAP\'s who ran well in recent memory (Danza and Super Saver)earned their tops in Arkansas.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
TAP tried derby with the smallish Circular Quay off long layoff. Destin owner a Kool Aid drinker(owns Rags) and was worried about big top.His work today was not great, pushed on a little late.
Outwork was the buzz worker at CD.
Right! Outwork has looked good and is the buzz horse on the backside. Destin has been hot nearly every day.
Detox from Kool Aide withdraw :)
Looking back at Tampa...John V rode both Destin and Outwork on Feb 13th. He was on Outwork for a 6f OCl, and then rode Destin to victory in the SF Davis.
Interestingly enough, Velasquez chose to ride Outwork over Destin in the Tamp Bay Derby. They obviously ran 1-2 in that race, with Castellano in the irons for Destin.
Outwork was drilling everything in the AM at PBD when JV/Angel C decided to ride big/strong/fast colt Outwork instead of Destin, was their choice.
I should have been more clear in my post. Meant I would want to see good works, did not mean to imply anything about his workouts as I did not know much about them until the ensuing posts. Thanks for the new info, will raise the bar on the odds I\'be looking for now.
Danza jumped 3.75 points off his 2yo top 1 race after a forgivable 1st race off a layoff. Destin was a 7.75 point jump-up. 2 years ago in a Derby with lots of jump-ups going in, I looked at the archives & at the time, and saw some pretty bad results for the big jump ups. Here\'s an update including results from the last 2 Derbies:
I used a 4.0 jump-up, which is a lot closer to the 3 jump ups going back to 1997 where all horses are available to review. In some years there were no big jumps, while some years yielded multiple leaps.
Overall there have been 26 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 2 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. That is unlike 2014\'s jumpers who were topping over 6 before their last big races. The other was Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 23 hit the board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the super. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 24 of 26 regressed, the 7 six points or over regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the 7, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points. This year only Destin has the big jump up of over 4 points off his prior top, although Lani did jump 4.5 points but I only have data on 2 of his races:
2015
17th,5.25,16
2014
4th,7.75,2.5
6th,6,1.75
8th, 7,4.25
(none the years 2011-2013)
2010
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.75,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25
2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50
2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50
2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00
2004
14th,4.75,7.25
2003
14th,6.00,9.75
2002
14th,4.00,7.00
2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75
1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50
1998
11th,5.25,14.00
Destin is the single most difficult issue for me in dealing with this year\'s Derby.
There is something different about this Pletcher horse it seems. I know the layoff is one thing but there are some other factors that seem to be a little different.
I haven\'t settled on where I stand. I will pay for the seminar simply for JB\'s thoughts on this one before I make my own final decision on what to do exactly. One poster has told me privately he was an easy elimination as others have posted here. And anyone who has read my posts at Derby time knows what I think of Pletcher at the Derby. Treadhead surely just rolled his eyes at me as he reads this.
But this Pletcher horse has me perplexed and very interested yet very cautious. I won\'t go into all the reasons. I will note I find it interesting that another Pletcher owner, Eclipse Thoroughbreds, was able to buy in for a minority share. The same owners as Danza. That doesn\'t have any huge influence on my opinion of the horse in this race but just an interesting fact.
i can\'t throwout the fastest horse where the pace setup suits him and he\'s had plenty of rest to recover. look at orb\'s sheet, which is similar, where Orb had a similar jump up and he didn\'t bounce in the Fl derby or Ky derby. Sometimes 3 yo\'s get good and they keep going. Danza and materiality have given me more faith in pletcher recently than in derbies prior.
I see that Destin is a full bro to Creative Cause, 5th in the Derby and 3rd in the Preakness in the I\'ll Have Another year. I wasn\'t a big fan of that horse that year, but interesting pedigree angle anyway.
Outwork is the TAP to pay attention to. I think this horse is really good, I\'ve been beating the drum for awhile but watch the Tampa derby and the Wood together, then checkout the works and backside buzz, if this horse was trained by anyone else this would be the clear pick...IMVHO..