Having skimmed various sources, this fella seems to be THE horse that is getting the highest variance in reviews. Some have given it shining speed figs putting him among the best in the mix but he seems to be getting a pretty rough treatment from TG here. I can see how his rail trips may have hurt his TG figs, but he seemed full of run opening up on the stretch at some key preps. Any takers here? Is he a contender or a pretender?
Gun Runner
Visibly impressive with a burst like a turf horse. But where will he be positioned with an honest pace. Either no late punch or a fair amount of catching up to do.
Another which, for me, is difficult to get on or off. But most will agree he\'ll need to improve and what is the probability of that happening, 33% at best?
Vertical popularity.
Have not seen any credible speed figs where Gun Runner is not slowwwww.Brisnet had him fastest of preps.....absurd!
By the numbers, his top (run in his last) is tied for fifth slowest in this field. And the slower ones are less than a point slower. Has the same top as Oscar Nominated, and has improved a whopping two points from his debut.
Positives are that he paired his top, and his running style means he probably won\'t need to overcome a 6W trip on the turn home.
Can\'t help but think that TG has the Fairgrounds races at bit too slow. Three horses out of that derby are among the slowest in the field. Destin did not fare well against this group, and then puts up the best number of this crop in Tampa. The aforementioned Oscar Nominated comes out of an FG race to win a stakes.
Fishy.
The way FG stacks its big days there are lots of dirt routes, very easy to do those figures. Curious as to who has GR fast-- he did save some ground which will make him \"faster\" for some, but still, fast?
Brisnet had the race and the pace ridiculously fast.
I think they adjusted it down recently though.
I don\'t look at their stuff except for tracking workouts(they go back several months
for each horse)
Yes-I just took a look at the BRIS PPs at the Louisville Courier-Journal website & in the last few days BRIS brought Gun Runner down from 104 to 100, and also brought Tom\'s Ready & Dazzling Gem down 4 points. For some unknown reason they dropped Mo Tom 5 points. They also changed the pace of the LA Derby.
Thanks for checking toppled. This helps explains the discrepancy.
I trust Pletcher\'s figures at Tampa the same way I do at Gulfstream---- I don\'t.
IMO there is no way Destin is coming into the Derby on 8 weeks rest by design. The colt \"lifted\" a bit more than he should have that day and more than likely came out of it a lot worse than he went into it.
Ran his eyeballs out to beat a superior 3yo in Outwork. I will pass on Destin and his negative number.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Agree Destin toss Outwork will be on tix as long as he keeps presenting well.
Least not forget the draw..
Good Luck
Brisnet is the best, the prime power numbers, the top 2 win 50% of the time.
this year top 3 are mor spirit, danzing candy, exaggerator, must use
Will be watching Land Over Sea in the Oaks. She\'ll need to post a big jump to even consider GR at what looks like 8-1 to 10-1.