I am curious as to the lack of discussion regarding Sudden Breaking News.He showed slow but steady development as a 2 year old and returned in his 3 year old debut with a substantial new top (3). He backed up only slightly off that big top (4 1/4)with a troubled trip. He then had a very wide trip in the Ark Derby,finished fast and Jerry give him a 1 1/4. If he pairs up or moves forward even incrementally, at 25 or 30-1 he strikes me as a horse to use and a win is not of the question. Not thrilled about the 3 weeks rest but there are others similarly situated. The top off the small backward move has always been fortunate for me as a 3 year old developmental pattern. Welcome any thoughts. (TGJB-Wright threw out a batter with an almost overhand throw tonight.)
I think he has a big shot, as there are only a couple in here that have run a better number in their last. He will be running at the end (and I\'m biased, as I have a future bet on him).
But,
This race is more often won by forwardly placed horses, not deep closers. His type will have to go wide coming home, could get stopped, etc - things front runners and stalkers won\'t have to. He\'s been in training pretty much non-stop since August.
One thing worth watching is how he gets over the surface in training. The jock in the Arky Derby said he was struggling with the track a bit, which could be a positive since he was good enough for a new top.
SBN is a very live play.
Biggest thing need the jock to save some ground turning for home.
If he can he may win,if not look for him to finish out the tri or super.
The question is how does he beat the closers in here that have a better turn of foot than he does?
If you like SBN, you must love Creator and Whitmore. They both leave SBN behind on the turn in Arkansas. Both more athletic both with a better turn of foot.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Not sure how you can put Whitmore in there. SBN beat him two out of three, and posted a better figure in those. SBN passed him late, and was getting to him in the third race. And now they\'re going an extra furlong, with Whitmore (and Creator) putting on 8 pounds. Getting first run isn\'t such an advantage when staring at that Churchill straight. Expect SBN to do what he did in his last - follow through the hole made by Whitmore, and see if he can catch Creator.
Exaggerator is the bigger threat of the closers, by turn of foot sure, but not least by number power. I do like the look of Whitmore and Creator\'s chart though.
Creator is my other key horse.
Whitmore distance issues..
SBN and turn of foot we shall see what May 7th holds if he likes the track he will be flying at the end.
This will be Creator\'s 5th race in 90 days going into the KD. Three others since 2009 have had that many. All three x\'ed including Line of David (2010) and Flying Private (2011) 0-2-x?, both out of the Ark Derby. Other was Twinspired, also out of a 3 week prep.
Creator also picking up 8 lbs.