In trying to assess Km\'s line through the Fla. Derby statement. Went back 15yrs or so, looks like 3 horses hit the tri in that period off a backup of more than a couple points. Monarchos, Bluegrass Cat, and Denis of Cork. A few have won off a backup, but they won their final prep, hard to draw a line through that in most cases. As Mor\'s offs seem to have still beaten many of these, he\'s the one I\'d be willing to give the pass to.
What really complicates things this year is that all 3 have #s fast enough to either win or be major contenders in the Derby if you draw a line through their last race. Who knows how much the track conditions compromised each of their chances.
Of the 3, the one I can make the best case for is Mor Spirit (but for full disclosure, I\'m biased because I have a futures bet on him). After his slow # in his sprint debut, where he ran 2nd, he ran his top in his 2nd race. Then came within a 1/4 point of that top in the San Felipe. After his 1st top he bounced 4.5 points. Or was it the sloppy track? After his latest big #, he bounced 3.25 points. Or was it the wet track again? His 2 worst numbers in routes are on wet tracks, yet he still ran 2nd each time.
Also, with futures in & an eye towards history, I did not want Mor Spirit to win the SA Derby. None of Baffert\'s SA Derby winners won the Kentucky Derby, while 2 of his 4 Derby winners ran in the SA Derby but didn\'t win. The dilemma is that neither Silver Charm nor Real Quiet bounced like Mor\'s SA Derby, but then track condition wasn\'t a factor in either case.
Without knowing the Arkansas #s, only 3 horses are as fast or faster than MO, MOR, or DC. One of these years I\'ll get burned, but to me Pletcher off a new top is a Derby throwout. If he wins with either Destin or Outwork, he beats me. with Pletcher\'s Derby history of horses coming in off significant new tops in their final prep, I\'m willing to toss them. The only other horse who ran fast is Exaggerator, but his wet #s are always higher at the point of development in his career. His 1st wet race was a 4.5 point new top, he then went back 5 points in his next fast track race, then paired his top in the Delta mud. His 3yo campaign showed development with 2 races paired 1.25 points higher than his 2YO top, then ran his new top, an improvement of 1.75 points on the wet SA surface. If it rains in Louisville, there\'s no way to not have him on all tickets, but I just think he\'s faster on a wet track & will play against him if the track is fast.
Clearly, if the reason for the slower #s on MO/MOR/DC were a dislike of the wet track, on the #s, any one of those 3 has a legitimate shot in the Derby-before analyzing, post or pace.
Mohaymen, wide trip and bearing the brunt of an easterly wind on the backstretch still should have been able to mount a little more fight than he did, especially on a slow fig race. I think the stature question comes into play at a mile and a quarter and a 20 horse field. Good luck on the futures wager, I\'ll be hoping to get 10-1 on what is likely my key.
I watched Mor Spirit\'s workout yesterday. The only thing I will say is that was higher on him on Wednesday than I am on him today.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Watched the work as well, jock whips him a few times right before the 1/4 pole like he might be lugging out. Tough to say for sure but just looks like a grinder to me. Tough to toss tough to key.
Real Quiet and Silver Charm both ran second in each of their two prior races.
\"So I got that going for me....which is nice\"
CS
LOL very good Dalai Lama
Looking back through the archives, it\'s very hard to make a case for those three. I\'ll have Another was the only horse I could find that ran their top figure at 1 1/16 and hit the board in the Derby. I did not include those that paired and granted I only looked back 10 years. Maybe it\'s the backward move, maybe they were better at short distances, but there\'s usually a few like these every year that take money and finish up the track.
2015 - Bolo, Itsaknockout
2014 - General A Rod, Intenseholiday, Candy Boy
2013 - Itsmyluckyday, Java\'s War
2012 - Creative Cause, Hansen, Alpha
2011 - Santiva, Soldat, Stay Thirsty
2010 - Lookin at Lucky, Noble Promise, Conveyance, Backtalk
2009 - Chocolate Candy, Join in the Dance
You get the idea. It doesn\'t look good for Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, or DC!
I\'m glad I have the Mor Spirit bet in as insurance, but after a review of all the Derby data available up until now, I think the horse who is going to run huge and is sitting on an explosive pattern is Brody\'s Cause.
Brody has run only 2 bad races in his career-his debut on turf & the Tampa Derby off a 4.5 month layoff. As long as he\'s going into a race with a prior recent race he runs his race. Exaggerator will get a lot of $ and Brody has beaten him twice, including a race on a muddy track which is Exaggerator\'s strength. He\'s already won at CD & is stabled there and all his works will be at CD. Of the main contenders, he\'s one of the best bred for 1 1/4.
In a field where this longshot ran as fast in his last prep as the favorite and has a pattern I believe is indicative of a strong forward move and has already finished ahead of the probable 2nd choice twice, Brody screams value to me & he\'s got just as good a chance as any other horse in the race. The fact that he needs the forward move I expect him to make will keep him under the radar unless he starts getting raves from the clockers.
As of 4/24 my #1 Derby horse is Brody\'s Cause.
What kind of a forward move are you projecting?
He would need a second consecutive pretty decent jump to be on par with the faster one\'s, and assuming any one of a handful of those runs a new top he\'d likely have to match the 5 point move he made last time out.
He\'s interesting, but will have to be much faster than he\'s shown to date. (certainly not impossible though)
Are you more confident in him running a huge new top or more so expecting the others to run off or \"X\"?
I feel the same way about Brody, look at his pattern as a 2yo. He moved forward in second start significantly and jumped forward again in third start. Just so happens he will be third off layoff going into the Derby and past history tells us that third off layoff has been a successful move with Derby winner, i.e. Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, American Pharoah, Big Brown, Street Sense and I\'ll Have Another to some extent. We\'re talking 7 of the last 9 winners have been third off the layoff, Brody\'s pattern says third off should be his best.
Bluegrass was another pace melt with the first three finishers far back early on a track biased to closers. Would be careful taking anyone out of there given the way that race set up.
Correct, only one I want is Brody. Big move past 8 horses in a blink of an eye with ears flopping back and forth waiting on command at the wire. Yes please, sign me up.
I\'m expecting a 2-3 point forward move. I don\'t see his 5 point move from Tampa (which I consider a total toss race) to the Bluegrass as a jump up. Rather, I see him returning to his 2yo top 2nd off a layoff and ready to move forward another 2-3 points.
Brody is one of 5 horses who ran fast enough as a 2yo where a move to the 0 to 1 range it will take to win this year\'s Derby should be well within his wheelhouse. Of the 5, only Brody, Nyquist & Exaggerator ran well in their final prep (the other 2 Mohaymen & Mor Spirit either off\'d or X\'d). Brody ran the same # in the Bluegrass as Nyquist\'s Fla Derby & head to head has finished ahead of Exaggerator twice.
What makes Brody value is his Beyers are low enough to keep him off the radar of the just about all the casual fans who will only look at the DRF Basic PPs. His top Beyer is a 91. More than half the field has run higher Beyers. I\'ll take the 12-1 to 15-1 on Brody over Nyquist or Exaggerator every day. I can always protect myself against them in exacta boxes.
How do you feel about MyManSam, then? Got the same Bluegrass number as Brody, and was coming for that one at the wire. Doesn\'t have the 2 year old foundation, but being lightly raced, more reason for development?
Agree if you like Brody how can you not like MMS?
I see gradual improvement with MMS, who I bet on in the Bluegrass. I just don\'t see him getting up to the 0-1 range needed in this race. Can he win? With this slow field many can win. I just like a horse who ran fast as a 2YO and just paired his 2YO top and is a 2 time grade 1 stakes winner better than the one who is eligible for a NW1x, hasn\'t beaten anyone of consequence, and doesn\'t have the #s to expect a 3 point jump up.
Have to say that I agree with this statement. Brody had some trouble on the first turn and it was bad enough to cause some horses to melt down. But he recovered, listened to his jock, weaved in and out of traffic when asked, waited, quickened when asked, took the lead and was waiting for his jockey to tell him to do more at the end of that race. Race wasn\'t especially fast but the figure doesn\'t tell the whole story IMO. This is a colt with the right mind to handle the stress of a 20 horse field. But he would have to move forward to win so I would want to see him continue to train forwardly.
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking back through the archives, it\'s very hard
> to make a case for those three. I\'ll have Another
> was the only horse I could find that ran their top
> figure at 1 1/16 and hit the board in the Derby.
> I did not include those that paired and granted I
> only looked back 10 years. Maybe it\'s the
> backward move, maybe they were better at short
> distances, but there\'s usually a few like these
> every year that take money and finish up the
> track.
>
> 2015 - Bolo, Itsaknockout
> 2014 - General A Rod, Intenseholiday, Candy Boy
> 2013 - Itsmyluckyday, Java\'s War
> 2012 - Creative Cause, Hansen, Alpha
> 2011 - Santiva, Soldat, Stay Thirsty
> 2010 - Lookin at Lucky, Noble Promise, Conveyance,
> Backtalk
> 2009 - Chocolate Candy, Join in the Dance
>
> You get the idea. It doesn\'t look good for
> Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, or DC!
Going back a few years more Bluegrass Cat 2nd in 2006 was the only other horse
I found that went backward at 9F from its 8.5f race top.Of the 3 Mor Spirit is the one I see that could possibly get back to their top two races back.I\'d be more forgiving for him because of two things (1) His connections (2) Off Track in last race.
That\'s the question I have. How many Derby winners backed up badly in their final prep? To me, that\'s a bad line.
That was essentially the point of the post. 3 tri spots out of 48. Monarchos the sole winner. But simply tossing them means tossing 3 of the 4 or 5 fastest in the race. I haven\'t looked at the numbers there, but I\'m pretty certain that\'s not pretty for the discretionary funds account. If I get some time later, I\'ll take a look.
While Monarchos did back up in the Wood, it\'s important to remember that after his tremendous run in the Florida Derby, Trainer John Ward said publicly before the Wood that Monarchos wouldn\'t be fully cranked for the race and that winning wasn\'t the goal. Given that his trainer made these statements pre-race, I would tend to discount the fact that Monarchos backed up in his last prep....a point I should have considered on Derby Day when I could have cashed a nice ticket at 10-1.
My over-analysis mode has reached the wet track phase. In one of my trials I took the Sire\'s TGI for wet & dry tracks and compared the difference.
Mor Spirit had the worst difference: 8 points slower on wet than fast. The only thing that is surprising is that Eskendereya\'s TGI on a dry track is the fastest in the race which may be skewing things. However, if the difference reflects Mor Spirit\'s lack of ability to handle a wet track, there is cause to forgive his # in the SA Derby.
3rd worst was Danzing Candy at 5.25 points. His bad performance may also need forgiveness. However, the fact he ran fast only once and then bounced like a super ball has me inclined to just toss him because either his San Felipe was an aberration or was a knockout performance which may take him months to recover from.
Thunder Gulch backed up in his last prep the 1995 Bluegrass Stakes. I think back then it was called \"the spring pattern\" Two good races followed by an off race/bounce.--Jett
Toppled,
Those aren\'t the only 2 possibilities, the San Felipe being an aberration, or it causing him to bounce like a rubber ball.
The other option, as you point out in the post and then discount it, is that he didn\'t like the wet track. Combined with a ridiculous runaway pace he set (caused by hating track?), he had every reason to run a bad race (without it being a form bounce)
Met a guy named Julian at a TG seminar years some time back (that he was leading). He said a knock like the one u and others point out with Danzig candy is a dealbreaker on a 2-1 favorite. While on a 20-1 shot, it is acceptable risk.
It has been years since that day and I am likely paraphrasing not completely correctly. That said, I laugh when I read posters saying they are \"tossing Danzig Candy\" as if tossing a 20-1 shot takes some huge modicum of courage. Tell me why u are tossing Nyquist. That may provide value...
Rob
Danzing Candy is 40 to 1 offshore. He is one the top 5 fastest horses. Those two statements make him value.
I may lose but I will not feel bad.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Toppled,
>
> Those aren\'t the only 2 possibilities, the San
> Felipe being an aberration, or it causing him to
> bounce like a rubber ball.
>
> The other option, as you point out in the post and
> then discount it, is that he didn\'t like the wet
> track. Combined with a ridiculous runaway pace
> he set (caused by hating track?), he had every
> reason to run a bad race (without it being a form
> bounce)
I was there for the race and beforehand, the discussion was about Danzing Candy\'s behavior in his paddock schooling being like none we\'d seen before (this was done the previous morning). He had his ears flat back the entire time. I stress flat back and the entire time. He was clearly not at all a happy camper. So what happens the next afternoon? He\'s a rank runaway. Maybe he had too much pent-up energy and needed a blowout.
With the Derby horses looked at through a microscope, we have a chance to know everything about the horses like no other race, and I plan to keep an ear out for Danzing\'s demeanor leading up to the race. Happy and relaxed, I\'m betting on him. If not, I\'m not.
Speaking of which, I love to hear what the horse-whisperer says every year. He makes it seem like science and maybe Jerry will find a notation to add to the figs that tells you the horse is a strong herd runner (my tongue is in my cheek).
But I do want to know. There has to be a mystical element wherever luck is involved--or at least invoked. One of my favorite stories is The Rocking Horse Winner, by D.H. Lawrence. This was made into a movie, by the way, and it starred some famous people. But most of you should know that...
Leamas
I don\'t remember Monarchos\' figure being all that bad. He regressed some but not horrifically. Invisible Ink came in off of an 02X pattern. Not usually a good pattern for young 3yos. but he finished a good 2nd at long odds.
Nyquist wobbled home like a drunk sailor. That\'s reason enough for me.
Jerry,
I want to believe that, as I have been betting against Nyquist, fruitlessly, from his first race onwards.
That said, I believe Mike/Miff or somebody posted another interpretation of that stretch run. Mario shifting fairly suddenly in the saddle, possibly knocking the horse a bit off kilter. I have watched the replay at least 5 times. I am not sure I agree with Mike/Miff (if it was him), but I can\'t definitively disagree either. It was an irregular movement by Mario and it certainly temporarily could have set the horse off balance enough to cause the veering. That said, the veering continued beyond the initial movement which is why I can\'t fully buy it. The other problem with interpreting that veering IMO is that I think most of us can tell when a horse is BO/BI from tiring, running on the wrong lead, etc.etc. Nyquist did NOT LOOK LIKE THAT to my eye. He was \"taking off\", almost giving the appearance of a \"re-break\", which I don\'t associate with a tiring BO/BI. Hard to say why he was veering in / veering out.
All that said, I am a horizontal bettor mostly and unless I single a longshot somewhere in the sequence, I will likely not have Nyquist on any tickets. But it won\'t be because of the BO/BI. Truth be told, on TG (and Beyer), he isn\'t that fast. I know he keeps winning, but it would seem to be a violation of my handicapping religion to take a relatively slow horse in a 20 horse field as the favorite. There are other bets to be made. (hopefully winning ones....)
Rob
It seems like Nyquist has either BO or BI in 4/5 previous races??, so I would agree that it shouldn\'t be used a reason to bet against him.
Re Nyquist,love him or hate him. Even in training,at CD and Cali he cocks his head to the right coming by the grandstand, that\'s just him.He also has never let a horse get by him in the am or in a race when hooked.
Dont love him at all but he is almost certain to use his tactical edge to be in a good ground saving position which cannot be said for about 16 others.
I\'m not a fan of him in this race nor am I a fan of his connections.
However to toss an undefeated horse who won the Florida Derby off of one 7f prep is begging for a massive Saturday night headache if he beats your longshot and the exacta is $200+.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I still say he didn\'t care for the slop that day..
He did what good horses do \"just win baby\"