A bullet at Churchill in a fast time (.46 4/5) - I give it an \"H\" instead of a \"B\", but he was definitely keen to run. Maybe more impressive was Mo Tom at .47 flat, given his running style, but I didn\'t see the video of that one.
Lani at 1:06 for 5f? Does that even qualify as a work?
Solid works for both Mohaymen & Mo Tom. Times that will likely encourage fans of either.
Re: Mohaymen I was wondering which notable Classic winners were diminutive like him. Birdstone? Would seem the 126 lbs is more of an issue for smaller horses than larger horses?
Lani\'s 1:06 probably doesn\'t reflect the colts true ability any more than the BSF of 83 from the UAE derby or the raw time of the Wood Memorial.
Frank Conversation was awarded a BSF of 91 for winning the 1+1/8 mile El Camino Real Derby @ GGF on 2/13/16. FC also ran a comparable race to Collected in the Cecil B. Demille @ DMR on the lawn. Prior to that FC was humbled, but highly enough regarded, to be entered vs. Mor Spirit in the Los Alamitos Futurity.
So FC\'s inability to do nothing other than chase slow fractions in Dubai can be attributed to a myriad of reasons. On the other hand one could take the view FC ran his race and Lani is already capable (in a race paced differently) of a BSF in the low 90\'s. B4 lasix.
I\'m just saying he may not be the rich slug the numbers from Meydan suggest. Looking forward to the comments of expert eyes from the morning exercises. Thanks for starting.
Interesting observation re: FC and Lani. i liked FC going into and coming out of the El Camino Real Derby. I thought he would do better at Dubai (maybe they forgot it wasn\'t Tapeta any more :)). But, as you said, if he did run his race, then I think Lani has a shot to finish in the money in in the Derby.
Lani just worked 5f in 1:06! I\'m backing off a bit from liking his chances. Still 20 days away, though.
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Re: Mohaymen I was wondering which notable Classic
> winners were diminutive like him. Birdstone? Would
> seem the 126 lbs is more of an issue for smaller
> horses than larger horses?
Northern Dancer, at 15.2 hands tall, won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness in
1964.
ND went on to become the single most important thoroughbred of the second half
of the 20th century, as the demand for his descendants drove the bloodstock
market to new heights in the 1970s and 1980s.
The Dancer was so diminutive that Windfields Farm constructed a ditch of sorts
for mares to stand in so they could be mounted properly by the short standing
stud.
And who knows what would have happened if Doc Harthill, a close friend of ND\'s
trainer Horatio Luro, had not stood sentry while another veterinarian gave ND a
dose of Lasix (illegal as were all other drugs) before the Derby. In
retrospect, the single most significant injection in the history of racing.
O\'neill\'s asst. in Dubai the morning of the UAE Derby was none too pleased that they sealed the track that day. He did not come out and say it, but he seemed to foretell that FC was not going to take to that particular track.
Tavasco (and Kevb),
I don\'t know, call me sarcastic, but how many horses from Dubai have to run up the track before people stop considering them? 100? 200?
Last year, the Dubai horse actually ran a relatively fast race and was somehow 8-1 in the last Derby Futures pool (and finished nowhere).
Lani, breeding or not, is too slow to win a nw/1 here, let alone the Derby.
There have to be better longshots to chase.
The Dubai route here doesn\'t work. Been proven for years and years. Move on.
Rob
Off shore odds on Mohaymen have dropped from 9-1 to 6-1 in past 24 hrs.
Mohaymen wasn\'t worked hard in Florida, not surprising to see faster works as derby approaches.Clocker who watched him all year said he looked fine yesterday,same as always.
Not surprised about money coming for Mo as KMG still insists horse is the real deal.
I have clips of Mo Tom and Lani both at the end of their works on my Vine account and Mohaymen in the lane through the wire on my IG if you\'re interested.
I was told ahead of time Lani was going to gallop 1mi and \"work\" 5F which is exactly what he did. His \"work\" was not of the American style so a little unfair I think to judge it on time. I will say his lack of speed might prove very disadvantageous as I don\'t think he can finish like some of the better closers also in this Derby. Likewise, as are a great many Tapits, he is pretty flighty and spooky and still seems a bit unfamiliar with the surrounding for a horse who\'s been at CD as long as he has. He will be ridden by Japan\'s greatest jockey so that\'ll be fun to see at least.
You all were right--Mohaymen is a little guy, but clearly not a horse who looks like he lacks class. I have nothing to compare his work yesterday but am taken aback slightly by his pinned ears throughout as that\'s not typically a great signal. But maybe that\'s how he always works...
The Tapit I did like yesterday was Creator, who I\'m feeling even more after seeing his AR Derby TG. I don\'t know if his # was 3w4w-based, but he is a BIG colt who\'s clearly started figuring things out and he might be fit and dangerous right back in the Derby. Same wih Suddenbreakingnews, who looks very live and is one of the fastest in the race. (And at least SBN\'s off the board effort two back was just a slight regression unlike Mohaymen\'s FL Derby)
The cheese may stand alone, but speaking as someone who bet I\'ll Have Another his entire (short) 3yo season, I have some misgivings about Nyquist\'s KYD preparations. He is doing so much jogging (and only going about a mile) and relatively little galloping that I\'m curious about his fitness a little. That work last week was supposedly a mile be he maybe got out of an open gallop the last quarter, and even then he didn\'t seem to ever get rolling.
I hope someone contradicts me on that because I\'d like to be proven wrong about him, and he throw down in his work tomorrow, but I\'m a little worried he\'s coming in a bit soft.
Regarding Mohay; Its easy to run fast by yourself,but a wet track and heat and humidity he folds? What are the excuses with 19 horses around you and 140,000 people in the stands?
I don\'t question his ability,it\'s his toughness?
Creator now that is the horse to watch and thanks for the tid bit..
Good Luck
John
Mike,
You aren\'t surprised by 6-1 offshore with risk of starting factored in?
Yikes.
That is a HORRENDOUS bet. I can\'t imagine what it would take for him to be 6-1 on Derby day, let alone now.
Not saying he can\'t win. His numbers prior to Florida Derby fit with this crop. But if you like him, you get rewarded Derby day at 8-1 to 12-1 range. Not 6-1 now.
Maybe an impossible game to beat, but certainly that way when you bet crazy underlays.
Have a buddy that proudly called me last year after he ran to the track Dubai Derby day, right after watching the UAE Derby. He had to drive 60 miles each way, get his bet in, get back home and get to the airport and make an international flight. But said getting down at 8-1 on the UAE (and he thought Kentucky Derby winner) was worth it. If we live to be 100, I will still be torturing him about how stupid that bet was.....
Rob
I\'m high on the Arky runners too, but there is something worrying.
A quick scan through the archives says that since 2000, only two horses that had their last prep at Oaklawn moved forward figure-wise in the Derby: Nehro and Eight Belles. And the latter was in the filly race. We\'re talking more than 50 horses here. (It was a quick look, so I may have missed some.)
Several ran good figures, and several paired. But it looks like this year\'s group needs to jump up a bit. That\'s not encouraging. Been struggling around for explanations. One might be that I think the Oaklawn prep is the only one with weights in the teens. So, moving from 118 to 126 maybe takes a toll. Doesn\'t bode well for Whitmore and Creator - though Nehro improved off a 6 pound gain.
Rob,
Can only tell that Kiaran has touted Mo to several very serious gamblers/friends so I\'m not surprised.Dont know how liquid the offshore pool is.Underlay/overlay is way too subjective for me. If MO runs off the screen and pays $15, would he still be an underlay?
All I keep reading is 5-6 horses who are suck up deep closers somehow being fast fig\'d.Those so called fast fig\'d horses have never won a prep in some cases and need set ups to have a remote chance.Those same 5-6 look like apples in a barrel, same style, vertically same late run.
There are only 4 horses that are fast on the racetrack but none with a huge edge over several others.
Mike
The horses who\'ve prepped at Oaklawn may not move forward figure wise in the derby, but they have done well hitting the board in recent years.......
What about Dennis of Cork, came in with a pair and jumped 4 points as a deep closer.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m high on the Arky runners too, but there is
> something worrying.
>
> A quick scan through the archives says that since
> 2000, only two horses that had their last prep at
> Oaklawn moved forward figure-wise in the Derby:
> Nehro and Eight Belles. And the latter was in the
> filly race. We\'re talking more than 50 horses
> here. (It was a quick look, so I may have missed
> some.)
>
> Several ran good figures, and several paired. But
> it looks like this year\'s group needs to jump up a
> bit. That\'s not encouraging. Been struggling
> around for explanations. One might be that I
> think the Oaklawn prep is the only one with
> weights in the teens. So, moving from 118 to 126
> maybe takes a toll. Doesn\'t bode well for
> Whitmore and Creator - though Nehro improved off a
> 6 pound gain.
Summer Bird prepped at OP and was clearly the best 3 yr old. Got buried in mud on Derby day though.
I think his sheet has his last prep at Hawthorne - which was a regression off his Oaklawn race.
AP moved forward last year. Weight could be one thing, it also seems the horses that go southwest/rebel/ark derby are the ones that struggle. Even Smarty could only manage a pair.
There is some chance odds dropping on M and others reflects negative opinions on someone else. I just put in a couple of futures based on that thinking, cause if so odds will change a lot.
Oddschecker, which covers all the British BM\'s, has Mohaymen at 10-1.
I assume MOYAMMEN's been injected in the void since his Florida Derby. But as to how that effects him going forward is your move. If you look at the sheet for FROSTED, McLaughlin\'s contender in last year's Derby, you'll notice a preposterous forward move to a negative number late in his two year old year... then a fade away from that performance in his next two starts at GP... followed by a layoff (of course, enough to appease withdrawal issues) resulting in another preposterous zap forward to a -2 top to win last year\'s Wood Memorial.
I understand McLaughlin was/still is? a good gambler. Wonder if preferred jockey kickbacks [still] figure in his equation.
Thanks Richie.
Oh, and not twenty questions but - anyone is the scheduled Cupid operation similar, identical to what Frostad went through last year.