What did SJ get for a figure today , he had to at least run his top.I thought the fact that Servis didn\'t work him out sincw the Derby was a negative, but this horse does nothing but run and he cost me a nice pick 4.BTW can someone tell me what Smith was doing.
Its Rion Heart...he goes wide and Pimlico lacks banking.
Those consistent fractions Smarty throws really get significant in the end.
The original fast number for smarty looks better all the time.
I\'m still trying to find out who got fourth...lol Dang service went down.
Post Edited (05-15-04 18:55)
Smith rides like a piece of crap. He was three and four wide the entire way and cost the Lion any chance to get in the money. Why they allow this putz to ride this horse is beyond me. He is horrible!! But boy, did Thorograph have a terrific day at Pimlico........terrific!!
Smith just explained what happens if he puts him down on the rail, the horse runs off. Why not give him credit for getting him to NOT run off in his career, its clear the horse is a speed merchant.
Then there is the fact that he race rode Smarty, his top rivel, Smarty lost more ground than Lion Heart and won by 11. What is your excuse for that?
I read so much about Smiths ground loss, but if its so important than how do you win 4400 races or so and about 120 grade 1 races, just luck I guess.
But I defer to your expertise in judging how a horse should be ridden and the importance of ground loss.
I had a miserable day (cashed nothing) until the Preakness...i\'m pretty sure I have the Tri and Super but I have to check my wagers and Xpress bet is down...lol
When the Lion gets another rider the proof will be in the results. The diatance may be too much for him, but I don\'t believe a single word Smith says. He is afraid to be on the rail. Period.
Lion got 4th edd3rd
7-10-9-1 with a Super Pay of 461.40.....and I cashed galore all day EXCEPT for the Preakness because Smith rode as he did to miss 3rd.......cost me big time!
In terms of the actual picks I made in the analysis, I gave them the $24.80 horse, but nothing else that won-- I had the top horse in a lot of races, but didn\'t fill the exotics. For myself, I was live for $30 on the pick 4 with LH, $10 each with 5 other horses, none of whose initials are SJ. If I had known it was paying $1500...
I\'m glad it wasn\'t close, it would have been tough to sleep tonight.
On Smith-- most of his success came before he got hurt, when he was more willing to come through inside. He went to SoCal, where it\'s not an issue-- small fields, everybody\'s making money, nobody comes through inside.
So let me follow this, Lion Heart, and obvious unrateble horse who was never supposed to get the distance, ran second and fourth to a superhorse, and you are saying the jock cost the horse the wins?
Do you have any other handicapping insights?
Just FYI, since he has moved to socal, smith has won 16 grade 1 races and over 30 stakes, guided three horse to eclipes races and won at 17%.
If that is shitty riding, I will take it all day long.
I guess if he rode like everyone here thinks he would be at 25%.
Jerry, I want to know when you get on Smarty cause thats when I\'m jumping off. :)
Seriously, you take some bold stands.
Third straight year I\'ve had the Derby and Preakness Winner. Can this guy win the Belmont. The new shooters were totally outmatched. Is there someone still on the bench I\'ve forgotten?
I gotta see the charts.
Post Edited (05-15-04 19:37)
Yeah, well--- the thinking may have been flawed, and not because of the result. My thinking was that he had a good chance to blow up, which is a good reason to get leverage by throwing him out of exotics , but I still made him 40% to win, as I said in the analysis. What really is annoying is that the pick 4 was 40% of that with LH, who was what, 10 times the price? Nuts.
Phil-
So what happened to the Smarty bouncing with confidence theory?
Glad you came aboard, sorry you missed the super. I was on the 7-10-1 tri pretty big, and luckily after yesterday\'s racing was wondering if Lion Heart could hang on, so I saved with some nice supers with Eddington in the third slot. All in all, its been a great Derby and Preakness.
And thanks to Jerry for the ongoing discussions about ground loss and jockey paths, all of which came into play today.
Time to sit and watch history being made at the Belmont. Smarty got his tune-up after all.
Now if only Dynever and Ole Faunty had decided to show up......
Post Edited (05-15-04 21:12)
You guys are better critical thinkers than I am....i try and spot a good horse...lol
He\'s good. I\'ve known he\'s good ever since the Rebel. I suspected he was good on the Southwest. Really theres no value now unless ur trying to hit tris or supers.
When he won that Rebel like he did I posted here saying that one day a horse would come along to earn a local track and triple crown bonus and smash the earnings record. I was implying this horse..lol Though I understand you\'re betting strategy.....my problem is I get hooked some of these horses despite knowing you can\'t do that...lol
I thought Smith ran a good race. He forced Smarty Wide and he stayed off the rail and I\'m not sure the rail the place to be. He just didn\'t have enough horse. I really don\'t think Smith cost the horse, though you could argue it cost him third.
Five horses? in ur pick 4? Lion Heart, Rock Hard Ten, Imperialism, Eddington, Borrego, whose the Fifth???? other one in the 10 buck pick 4?
I extrapolate Smarty\'s closing quarter to 24.75 in hand which is faster again than his penultimate fraction. This is horse is very good. His sire had that world record mile and this guy can go a little further. the only thing that will stop him in Three weeks is circumstances. He\'s by far the best three year old at this point.
Post Edited (05-15-04 19:56)
Not that this will make you feel any better, but LH was 3.5 X the price (more or less) since you figure parlays including the $2.
So its $3.40 vs 11.80Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
propbably right, he could have ridden for third, or as he did, ridden to beat smarty jones. ones good for the better, one is probably better for tabor and biancone.
Post this morning by Silver Charm,
\"but this is one non-wagering vote that this undefeated Philadelphia Locomotive rolls over the top of this field just like he did Derby Day.\"
Spent the day with a couple real sharp Graphies and had an excellent time. We actually threw Smarty Jones out on the pick four ticket trying for a bomb and had five other horses going in the Preakness. And as Judge Smells told Spalding in the movie Caddyshack....\"You\'ll get nothing and like it\".
TGJB you are exactly right, the first thing out of somebodys mouth when they posted the Pick Four prices was Rock Hard Ten pays $3,500 and Smarty pays $1,500. One horse is 6-1 to win and the other is 3-5. How does that work ???
As far as not playing Smarty to win in either the Derby or Preakness let me say this. TGJB I think you will agree, I never doubted who the fastest horse in either race was, the numbers were obvious regarding that.What was questionable was whether or not Smarty could repeat those prior numbers, and using previous history, this seemed to be highly unlikely.
There has been a lot of talk here and elsewhere about horses like Imperialism, Eddington for days on end, Borrego, Rock Hard Ten, TCE, Tapit and many more. The point being those discussions seemed to think those horses were possibly better than Smarty Jones. Why else were people thinking they could win??
People who have given out selections other than Smarty Jones, in print, or on TV, or on the Net and I have seen plenty of them, and in the same breath critisized the Bounce Theory logic.
Whats your excuse??
CtC2 wrote:
> \"I extrapolate Smarty\'s closing quarter to 24.75 in hand which is faster again than his penultimate fraction. This is horse is very good. His sire had that world record mile and this guy can go a little further. the only thing that will stop him in Three weeks is circumstances. He\'s by far the best three year old at this point.\"
do you think so?
Jerry, I have obviously never had to make numbers for any horse,and I love your numbers, but, I felt your Kentucky Derby number for Smarty Jones was too low (because of the weather and track conditions that day) if Lion Heart ran his -1 in the Derby than Smarty probably ran his -3, which would make him less of a bounce candidate in the Preakness. Do you agree with that thinking? I also think Smarty ran an incredible race fig today because of how Smith rode Lion Heart today. Smarty was 4-5 wide through the first half of the race before he realized Mike couldn\'t control Lion Heart. How much would he have won by if he saved more ground in the early part of the race? 15-18 lengths?
My comment in earlier posts about him looking like Secretariat coming down the lane in the Belmont is looking a little more possible today. I wished he hadn\'t used Smarty so hard today, Servis was obviously more worried about this race than I thought he had to be. Just my thoughts, curious what others think.
Doug...I had a sensational day that was marred only by my belief that Smarty was due for a bounce after so many races with great numbers in so short a time. I was wrong. He is sensational!!
My only gripe was that Smith cost me third...which would have provided me the tri and super because I \"saved\" with Smarty winning too. They can defend Smith all they want, he cost this horse show money with a stupid wide ride...and I agree that since his accident, he rides like a \"wuss\"....He WILL be replaced...betcha!!
mike smith has been horrible for 10 years now. he thinks the rail is a place to avoid at all cost
Lucy,
Go head and pull my leg. :)
Its o.k. though, I\'ve been riding Smarty every race this year.
He could bounce next. Thats always a possibility. But He\'s not a one dimensional horse like War Emblem and he\'s not facing others in the crop that he\'s only marginally better than a.k.a. Funny Cide. Though, i have a theory about the bounce in these races that tends to hold up for me.
I\'ve liked this horse a long time and the only thing that kept me from going future book on him was a very expensive lesson a few years ago. But I\'ve been getting well on him at 10-1 and 20-1 bites. However, I\'ve not forgotten having stated earlier that this was the most difficult Triple Crown year Ive ever handicapped...lol
Easy Goer was my favorite horse...but I gotta tell you I\'m getting awful fond of Smarty.
He\'s caught two tracks that were not going to allow records and I\'d be foolish to project any horse breaking Big Red\'s Belmont record. But this horse will set a track record down the road if he can stay fit. It he were my horse, I\'d try and win the Belmont with him and retire him. He\'s just too valuable. If he can knock down a track record before he goes to stud. His initial book is gonna be massive.
Ummm, just for the record, I think I was the first to call Smarty Jones a freak, guys.
I look forward to his figure in this race.
I think it was clear that front runners dropped dead every race on the card save the 2nd, which was won by an odds on favorite.
Smith rode a brilliant race! That\'s right folks a brilliant race! He knew he had one horse to beat and he parked him 4 wide on the 1st turn LIKE HE SHOULD HAVE. If Smarty doesn\'t fire, LH has a chance to win. If Smarty does fire, well, he\'s gonna win by a bunch because this is a field/crop of garbage cans.
Most of us here knew 3 things going into this race:
1. Lion Heart will be on the lead
2. Mike is notorious for riding in the 3 path - especially with this horse.
3. This was a horrible betting race.
So no crying about Lion Heart losing please. I loved him in the Derby, and he got his ass kicked fair and square by a FREAK.
i don\'t believe SJ was wider than LH Stew has brains and ducked inside both turns.Maybe Smith should have let him run off, because being 4w both turns is guaranteed defeat
He wasn\'t going to beat SJ , but they pay down other slots, Smith rode like crap and he cost the horse 3rd place for sure. I never liked Smith and i have posted that here in the past, he has to be on a Cadillac to get the money.
Give me Dominguez or Bejerano any day of the week over that stiff.
If i knew it was $1500 i would have had it as well, i really liked that $24 horse and i really liked Gators and Bears.
Stew knew what was happening with Smith under the wire the first time, he actually checked slightly to keep SJ from going wider that LH. I can why Smith would try this on the first turn, but i can\'t see why he was so wide on the stretch turn, i just can\'t see it.
Chuckles-
Please send me a note with your reply address. I\'d like to send an interesting article to you.
Kingfisher
Maybe this helps
Jockey Mike Smith: \"My horse struggled from the word go. He kept trying to get out. I stayed after him and kept him in as best I could, but Smarty Jones was just amazing today.\"
But since we have read here from all the people who must know him, he is a liar so take it for what its worth.
With the dirt track playing app 2 seconds slower than normal for all dirt races run, I would have to believe that with 126 lbs and a wide trip in the first turn, SJ ran a new top.
Bccassidy-- If you take that position, SJ ran no better beating the Preakness field by 11 than he did winning the Derby by 3-- unlikely, even leaving aside all the factors I look at when coming up with figures.
Taking a fast look at the day (I\'m a couple of days from doing it), you\'ve got a group of horses a length apart who run in the 1 1/2 to 2 range, and if they did so here SJ ran back to his Rebel #. This also looks like it fits withe Schaeffer, but as I said, I haven\'t done the work yet.
CTC-- you are probably not going to see those track records, and not because SJ isn\'t good enough. Right now he has run 4 figures which are better than those run by anyone else of his crop, which is unheard of, and is by far the best 3yo since we\'ve been making figures, and realistically by far the best of all time, but since I wasn\'t making figures before that I can\'t say so definitively. Before anyone starts invoking Secretariat\'s Belmont, read the \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\" stuff in the archives here to see how much slower the sandboxes-- I mean tracks-- are now.
Mike Smith isn\'t likely to admit he ran a poor race on national T.V. He isn\'t honest enough to say that he\'s lost his nerve, so of course he\'ll blame the horse.
Saddlecloth...read carefully.
I said \"...to get in the money.\" I did not say WIN.
I was just pissed because I had nice trifectas with Lion in 2nd and 3rd. Say what you will to defend Smith...it was his very typical wide ride AGAIN.
Are you related to this stiff?
Jerry,
I\'ll defer to your overall acumen on track consistency in the new millineum.
I thought Smarty would explode once he got off the slop. I really don\'t think he\'s quite as good on it. He\'s good on it. Very Good, but on dry tracks he goes into the most impressive late race enery conservation I think i\'ve seen. Easy Goer was capable of explosive fractions and split runs, but theres not been a more efficient energy machine that I\'ve seen than Smarty. That said the 12 mark issue is significant for many horses...but i\'ve seen no indication it should be a problem. I\'m more concerned about the Big Sandy itself. Sunday Silence was very efficient but Smarty\'s late efficiency is outdoing Sunday on dry surfaces. I knew that.
I also completely agree with you\'re figures for the Derby. I don\'t think theres any doubt about them. They say \"close enough for government work\". Well thats good enough in Iraq, but your work is substantially better than that. I think I understand it. I could never duplicate it, but I love both the science and reality of it.
Everyone knew Rock Hard was a good horse he beat Imperialism in the Santa Anita Derby. I thought two horses had a chance for second: Rock Hard and Lion Heart and in all candor....i utilized you\'re figures on this. I rejected everything else. Your figures have held up magnificently for this triple crown and the recent preps...anyone considering them and knowing how to handicap should be sitting on full pockets.
I TAKE IT YOU ARE NOT A TRUE \'DOGMATIC\' SHEET THEORIST(NOR AM I).I HANG WITH MANY SHARP SHEET READERS,RAGS AND TG AND ALMOST EVERY ONE OF THEM TOSSED SJ IN THE DERBY AND PREAKNESS.I HEAR MOST OF THEM STILL TALKING THAT SJ WILL EVENTUALLY X (WOW WHAT BRILLIANCE). MAYBE AN 0-3-X WILL BE DISCOVERED, EVEN 0-4-X.YOU NEVER KNOW WITH THESE GUYS.
I\'ve learned more about the bounce from Jerry and T-Graph since I came to find this site. Even Jerry will tell you that the bounce just isn\'t as prevalant with developing horses. You can get massive regression and unsoundness but thats something else.
Its also a tool for goin after a favorite and I understand that, but I also do take short prices on horses when i think they are deserving of short price. How difficult was it to factor that Preakness Super on Jerry\'s numbers? The only horse that didn\'t really run its race was Imperialism and he inexplicably altered his pace style. Lion caught a heavier track and he faded a bit more and he figured to.
I truly believe smarty could have run a 1:54 and change on that track if asked
CtC
Post Edited (05-16-04 18:11)
The reason the pic4 with Smarty(3-5) paid $1500 versus the possible payoff of $3500. for RHT(6-1) is that the majority of the bettors still alive for the 4th leg were sheet players(relatively easy to pick first 3 legs using the sheets) and the sheet players(except for a few of us) figured Smarty for the bounce and left him off their Pic 4 Tickets. So, the value play of the day was SJ in the Pic4!
Thanks, Fellow Sheets Players. ;>) Asfufh
I have noticed many bemoaning the fact that LH cost them the tri. If LH was singled in the 3rd spot then don\'t blame Smith. He was beaten by 2 horses that were fresher than he was and that had a number that was competitive. He lost the placing by a head but Eddington had a little trouble also according to the charts...\"EDDINGTON , unhurried for a half while racing well off the rail, gradually gained five wide nearing the far turn, moved inside IMPERIALISM at the three eighths pole, circled five wide advancing into the stretch, altered course between rivals at the three sixteenths pole but failed to threaten while improving his position.\" Here\'s a horse that was also 5 wide and \"altered course between rivals\". What if Eddington ran 4th? Would those that keyed EDD in 3rd be able to blame Bailey for going 5 wide and having to alter course?? If Eddington wasn\'t in the 3rd hole on one of your tickets then is that Smith\'s fault too?? Its too easy to blame defeats on ground loss. If Smith chokes him over to the rail and he runs off or doesn\'t like it and sulks, what then?? Sounds like sour grapes to me.
As for the Pick 4....what a gift to Thorograph players. Thank you TGJB for your consistently outstanding product. I am nothing more than a novice, a weekend player that enjoys the challenge of wagering on these magnificent animals. I buy TG sporadically but regularly check the race of the week and RB Room to get better at reading TG. How can you not have the P4 using TG?? Royal Assault was a single to me ( Preachin had a bad pattern and gave wt) , Mr.O\'Brien had the fastest figure in the field which he just ran, Gators and Bears has been running big races regularly (multiple negs), and of course SJ. I too got burnt by Smarty in the Derby but he wasn\'t going to do it to me again (I saved with RHT, Song, and Edd). If only they were all like this.
I don\'t mean to gloat or sound like I am a great handicapper ( I\'ve stumbled out of the track many times wondering why I do this after a day of getting my butt kicked). But TG really clicked at Pimlico on Saturday. Congrats to all TG players and again thanks to JB. Your product is second to none.
Sorry about the multiple posts, hit post instead of preview.
Post Edited (05-17-04 20:20)