I know it is a bit early and we still have the PP draw, but I have to say from a pure TG perspective, Exaggerator is an absolute standout. I am not \"old school sheets\" where a number is a number regardless of trip, distance, surface, bias, etc.etc. I believe all numbers have to be looked at through the lens of all those factors.
But that said, Exaggerator is co-fastest this year. Has a beautiful sheet. 9 races over the 2 seasons and gone backwards exactly once. A solid 2-year old top, followed by 3 good races this year. He is 3 points faster this year, but is by a late developing sire whose progeny develop 5 points on average from 2 to 3. Spacing is fine and you get a hall of fame jockey who has won 3 derbies. Price not great, but not favored. Maybe 6-1 or so.
Yes, the new top was a on a wet track but he has run fast on a dry track too and really is sort of neutral on wet track breeding.
Which contender looks as good as he does on sheets?
Rob
I got off this horse before the Santa Anita Derby because I didn\'t think he could finish. Boy was I wrong. One of the things I liked about him before when I was playing him is he could run on the rail and save ground. Which he did. Last race was the first in a route he took the overland trip. He also skimmed the rail in the Saratoga Special. Desormeoux won the Derby 3 times with all sorts of trips. Looks to be the goods
Rob:
I have a big play on him in Pools 3 and 4. Be careful. I had the Florida Panthers last night. Only I can lose a sports bet like that.
The way i\'m going lately, if I walk into IHop they\'ll be out of pancakes.
But yes, i agree.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
ihop, the home of the 1 legged waitresses
His sheet is a thing of beauty.
He\'s won inside of horses, outside of horses, and through horses. Check out his Saratoga Special, he just bulled his way through.
He\'s won on the lead, stalking, and obviously closing from Van Nuys.
He\'s won at four different distances at four different racetracks.
Interesting story. Had Exaggerator not run big in the SA Derby, he was to be taken out of derby picture. Connections were very concerned about what appeared to be possible distance limitations( breeding says otherwise)
Then there\'s a comment made by Kent D pre SA derby,that Exaggerator will never beat Nyquist.
Figs do say he\'s ok wet or dry, me thinks he\'s better wet.
His record is also 4-0-2-1 routing on a fast track.
Ajkreider,
This is a speed figure board, isn\'t it?
His wet and dry track figures are commensurate. His losses on dry tracks included several against a horse nobody has beaten yet.
Can\'t argue with Miff in that he might be a bit better on a wet track, but not because he has lost to Nyquist a few times on dry tracks.
Rob
Yeah, this is a figure board. But whether you think his sheet looks fantastic, or just good, depends on what you think produced that top.
What is clear from the sheet is that his best figures at 2 were on wet tracks, and his best figure at three is on a wet track. If you conclude the track conditions moved him up, (and moved others back), then that gives the sheet a very different read.
What about Outwork? Modest move forward in the Wood. Hot sire with Empire maker on the bottom. The price will be square.
The two expected morning line favorites come in with back to back races with a BO(Nyquist)and BI(Exaggerator)
It may be nothing since Street Sense went into his Derby with some drifting in both his 2007 preps but it is something to think about.
Take a look at Alysheba\'s sheet
I think Outwork is interesting. The tougher of the two speed horses, I expect him to dictate terms on the front end set soft fractions, and have a chance. Certainly will use underneath.
Obviously post position will play a huge role in maintaining this opinion
I would say that it is extremely unlikely that Outwork gets to the front ahead of Danzig Candy. Danzig has shown he is a need the lead and Pletcher has been letting outwork sit just off the pace.
Rob
You\'re likely right. I was thinking more so that after the SA Derby they would try to keep Danzig Candy more under wraps early and sit off outwork.
But DC is faster and does seem to need the lead.
Uncle Lino first horse to run out of the Santa Anita Derby.
He ran pretty well.
Against what at LA?
Sherlock was high on Lino, talked him up pretty good all winter. He had his chances with the big boys and came up empty 3 times. Forgive the first one he wasn\'t cranked up. A complete toss is he goes to Baltimore.
Wasn\'t my point Frank.
My point is the race (Santa Anita Derby) may be productive, if you or anyone else believes in such.
Tale,
The way you worded it sounds like you\'re talking up Lino. The race was very productive as the 2nd and probably 4th choices in the Derby came out of it 1, 2.
Lino just not in that league IMHO and number wise.
Please excuse the confusion but I was referring to the Santa Anita Derby as a whole.
In my eyes, a race is productive (or non) when horses make their following starts. Uncle Lino is the first horse to run out of the Santa Anita Derby and clearly went forward off the race.
Tale,
No worries, did not mean to offend you. Lino\'s sheet is still up in the red board room going into that race. He would have been competitive in Louisiana.
No offense taken Frank. None at all.
Some of us believe in key races, some don\'t. To me, it\'s another ingredient in the sauce.
Exaggerator has such beautiful development. I actually told a friend of mine his sheet looks like Charlize Theron :)
Wet track or not, I just can\'t see him not hitting the board on Saturday.
The only concern was that slow final work. Good horses work somewhat quick, especially improving 3 year olds. That last one was almost too slow, 1:02 3/5. Don\'t know if he has a history of working slow and then running well. But that last one is an eye opener for the wrong reasons.
Roughly worked the same pre SA Derby big win
Desormeaux likes to work them slower than most, with stronger finishes. Fewer horses to work with (doesn\'t grind on them) and emphasis on developing younger distance runners. Track record is pretty good, here is a nice read from Bloodhorse, interesting that both he and Baffert respect Nyqvist while others don\'t.
A Derby Rookie\'s First Churchill Morning
by Claire Novak
4/30/2016 5:11:00 PM
There was a media throng swelling, rain pelting the roof of Barn 25, and an on-the-muscle horse to cool out April 30—Exaggerator, who had just powered through his final pre-race workout for the May 7 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) and was now levitating with feel-good bounds on the end of a shank down the narrow shed row at Churchill Downs.
One could not miss the edge in trainer Keith Desormeaux\'s voice, as he emphatically exercised some reality-infused crowd control, powering out of the barn and backing the press away from its walls with a strategic adjustments to some stable barricades.
\"We\'re trying to cool this horse out and get his heart rate down. Horses don\'t like umbrellas!\" the Derby rookie exclaimed, his own pulse clearly on the rise.
Those who have been around this Run for the Roses circus a time or two know horsemen—born worriers to begin with—have plenty of concerns to address as their runners approach the race of a lifetime. On the morning of Exaggerator\'s final work, for instance, the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner was met with an eyeful of brightly-clad marathon runners streaming through the infield, as news helicopters hovered overhead. And let\'s not forget the work was pushed back a day to begin with after California-based Desormeaux missed his flight to Louisville.
Much to his trainer\'s relief, Exaggerator stayed focused through the breeze—five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 under Hall of Fame brother Kent Desormeaux—and potential disaster was also averted back at the barn. With those hurdles out of the way, it was a much more relaxed and pleasant horseman who greeted the bedraggled press out in the rain after one final delay.
\"Excuse me,\" he said after polishing off a mid-morning snack. \"I\'ve got some cantaloupe in my teeth.\"
Keith Desormeaux, for all the times his brother Kent has ridden in the Run for the Roses (19) and won (three), is living his own first Kentucky Derby experience. He could have made it with I\'ve Struck a Nerve, but the colt who upset the 2013 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at odds of 135-1 sustained an ankle injury during a workout in March and never ran again. Texas Red, the Breeders\' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner of 2014, was also sidelined with a foot abscess that led to a quarter crack.
So what\'s it like to finally be here, to actually have a chance at saddling a Derby runner with the race just seven days away?
\"The words pop out pretty good when I\'m describing my horse and describing the race and why we\'re here, but when you ask me a question like that, the words don\'t come as easily,\" Desormeaux said. \"I don\'t know if I\'m still taking it in. It\'s still sinking in that we\'re here. It is one of those subconscious goals that all trainers hope to achieve, but now that I\'m here, it\'s just a culmination of what we\'ve put in over the years. No real surreal or euphoric feeling yet. It\'s just still work.\"
It was a fitting sort of morning for Desormeaux\'s first meeting with the Kentucky Derby media, under gray skies and steady rain. Exaggerator\'s Santa Anita Derby victory, one of the most visually impressive of the Triple Crown trail with a 6 1/4-length win margin, came over a sloppy, sealed track after a rare Southern California storm.
\"I want a dry track because his odds will be better,\" Desormeaux said. \"If the track\'s off, they\'re going to bet more on him, and I think he\'s just as good on a dry track.\"
The secret to Exaggerator\'s impressive Santa Anita Derby win, the trainer said, came not in the track condition but in the setup of the early pace. After Danzing Candy sped to the early lead and went the half in :45.24, Exaggerator closed from seventh to pick up the pieces for his large ownership, a group that includes Big Chief Racing, Head of Plains Partners, and Rocker O Ranch. WinStar Farm is also now on the bandwagon with an arranged stud deal when Exaggerator\'s racing career is done.
BLOOD-HORSE STAFF: Exaggerator to WinStar After Racing
\"I\'d love to say that my horse is awesome and he just blew them off the map because he\'s just physically in another orbit compared to them, but it was mainly due to the half-mile in :45,\" Desormeaux said. \"American Pharoah, Secretariat reincarnate, cannot go :45 and continue. If Secretariat was in the race and went :45, Exaggerator would have beat him. So it\'s all about pace. That\'s the main reason why he looked so spectacular.
\"He was the only one in that race that was comfortable in the first half. They went too fast (and) he blew by them. He was running, the eighths he was clipping off were solid, but they weren\'t spectacular. He was just the only one finishing.\"
In the Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator will meet champion Nyquist again. He did not have to face the seven-for-seven colt at Santa Anita, because Nyquist traveled to Florida instead and soundly trounced previously undefeated Mohaymen in the April 2 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby (gr. I).
\"Nyquist is a faster horse, he\'s proved that—what else does he have to do?\" Desormeaux said. \"The only thing I can hope is that, as you all know, these young horses are maturing daily. They\'re still not physically at their peak. Some horses mature faster than others. It goes back to pedigree. My horse is built different than Nyqyuist and probably has a lot more growing to do, where Nyquist is probably leveled out. I don\'t know, I hate to expound on another man\'s horse, but all I can hope is that my horse is maturing and becoming faster, where Nyquist hopefully is leveling off. That\'s all I can hope for.\"
So what positives does Desormeaux find in his colt, a bay runner purchased for $110,000 from the Warrendale Sales consignment to the 2014 Keeneland September yearling sale?
\"He obviously fits well,\" the trainer said. \"I guess No. 1 is pedigree. He\'s by Curlin out of a Vindication mare. That means he can run all day. This mile and a quarter race is a whole new ballgame, and endurance is the key.
\"Second of all, the style of running. It seems practical to me that it\'s more effective to be an off-the-pace horse in order to get a mile and a quarter, than trying to run a mile and a quarter on the lead. I don\'t know, that\'s what I think. So his style fits that as well. He should be able to get a mile and a quarter with no trouble, and of course class comes into play—and he\'s shown his class.\"
For Desormeaux, 48, who has built a career training horses for endurance and longevity rather than sheer speed, the opportunity to finally saddle a Derby starter admittedly comes with incomparable pressure. But it is the pressure that goes along with the satisfaction of competing at the highest possible level of the game, and that\'s the kind of pressure Desormeaux is willing to take.
\"I\'m just glad to get here for my owners and for my own career,\" he said. \"Just the style and the type of training that I do, that I think is a little offbeat, it\'s a little different from the norm. I want my horses to be steady for a while. To show that style can get us to the top level is pretty gratifying.\"
Copyright © 2016 The Blood-Horse, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
He ran a 102 4/5 (67/71) 1 week before the SA Derby. Of his last 12 workouts, the only time they put the hammer down was 13 days before his 3yo debut when he ran a bullet 58 1/5.
I\'d be more concerned that his best races as a 2yo and his best race as a 3yo were on wet tracks. Brody\'s Cause already has finished ahead of him twice including beating him on a wet track & getting a better TG # than him in the muddy Breeder\'s Futurity last October.
Yes, more on that work:
Exaggerator Works for Kentucky Derby Bid
by Claire Novak
4/30/2016 10:16:00 AM
Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner Exaggerator put in his final pre-race breeze ahead of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) the morning of April 30 at Churchill Downs, going five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 under jockey Kent Desormeaux.
Trainer Keith Desormeaux, the Hall of Fame rider\'s brother, said the Curlin colt has not lost form since coming out of his impressive Santa Anita Derby win.
BALAN: Exaggerator Soars Home in Santa Anita Derby
\"The work was nice,\" Desormeaux said. \"That\'s the first time in a while I\'ve watched a work from the backside ... what I saw from the backside was a nice, smooth breakoff from the pony ... I\'ve heard already that he was clipping off nice eighths in :12, final time was 1:02-and-three, I got him galloping out in 1:28; all that\'s very nice. But the nicest thing is, that time is one fifth from the time he went before the Santa Anita Derby, so he seems to be on the same level. A lot of this is mental, so he\'s clipping off the work mentally correct.\"
Churchill Downs clockers caught Exaggerator in splits of :12 4/5, :25 1/5, :37 4/5, and :50 2/5, out in 1:15 3/5 and 1:29 3/5.
\"It\'s typical, especially with a big race like that, you\'re going to see a horse regress,\" Desormeaux said. \"In other words, they need to rest and recover in that time. He did that pretty quickly, he recovered pretty quickly in the first week, and since then he\'s progressed to this point. We\'re just glad not to see a continual regression after that first week. He\'s progressing; that\'s positive.\"
Copyright © 2016 The Blood-Horse, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
\"I want a dry track because his odds will be better,\" Desormeaux said. \"If the track\'s off, they\'re going to bet more on him, and I think he\'s just as good on a dry track.\"
2yo top dry track 4.5 points slower than 2yo top (which was only 1/4 point faster than his other 2yo mud race). His only fast races as a 2yo were on wet tracks.
3yo top dry track 1.75 points slower than 3yo top on sloppy SA Derby track.
Until he starts running comparable figures on dry tracks to his wet track races, the numbers say he\'s better on a wet track.
Glad to read all of the past works on him are the same type. I remember Whittingham used to say that good horses almost always work faster than you\'d like them too but it doesn\'t necessarily hit them because they\'re good to begin with. Sunday Silence blazed 4 furlongs in 46 and change before the Derby and everyone thought his race was left on the track that morning. Charlie said \"Good horses can do that\" with more ease than not-so-good ones. Exaggerator looked like the goods last summer at Saratoga. I\'m hoping he\'s ready now.
You won\'t get 6-1 for all the reasons you\'ve mentioned. 4-1 would be fair.
Nyquist\'s BO concerns me more than Exaggerator\'s BI. Nyquist was leg weary. I\'m looking for him to fold up around the 1/8th pole.
Still not sold on his Wood figure. Slowest Wood ever and he beat a maiden by 1/2 length.
DC doesn\'t rate kindly. He was rank SA Derby day because of the crowd. My guess is he leaves his race in the paddock.
Tale of Ekati
U are in the wrong spot for a \"key race\" discussion. And I believe Frank D is a self professed Kool aid drinker.
I get your point and agree completely. An also ran in the SA derby sets a track record next out against some OK horses (Baffert horse supposed to be good there)
There is antidotal proof again this year that the California 3 year olds are an extremely strong group and florida again no good. The California maiden, tripping out or not, almost beats Outwork in the wood. Nyquist destroys an Allegedly faster Mohaymen on a track that Mo prepped twice on while Nyquist shipped cross country and had just a 7 furlong sprint as bottom going into a 1 1/8 race. Even the Baffert 5th stringer destroying a group in the CD sprint race Saturday night. .
Personally, going to likely have my bet centered around 2 horses, in horizontal wagers, pressing exaggerator and saving with Danzig Candy. I think the former is the most likely winner for reasons I already posted more than once and DC is a interesting price horse. And both are west coast. (No dig at TG figs for California as TG has exaggerator fast and DC 2 back pretty fast.
Toppled,
This is not an attack post, but that is a one-dimensional read in a game that has about 27 dimensions to it. I would call it \"old school sheet reading\" and I am replying to this post because Exaggerator\'s sheet is a perfect example of what I was discussing with TGJB in my post the other day where I said you need to look at how the numbers were earned.
So, Exaggerator has 3 races this year. First a 7 furlong sprint, which may have some correlation to how he runs at 1 1/4 miles (but not a direct one). Then he goes two turns and runs an extremely strong middle half into a fast race where the winner wires. Those that look at internals and compression figs had him running faster than TG/Beyer/Rags etc. Then he goes 1 1/8 on a sloppy track where he sits dead last while you have a runaway speed horse setting a suicidal pace and he swoops by them all and draws off.
So, you have decided to zero in on the ONE factor of a wet track and call it a wet track top. Not the extreme pace that set up the race for a horse sitting dead last. Not the extra distance helping him. And not just ordinary NORMAL development for a healthy spring 3 year old (just 2 points from his 2 year old top) and this is a horse with 7 or 8 races with a healthy line having only one race where he didn\'t pair or go forward.
Exaggerator 3 races this also reflect the trouble with pattern reading in general. How do you analyze a pattern with races at 3 different distances, one on a sloppy track, one with an extreme race flow edge based on pace and with a race flow disadvantage based on pace.
Rob
Dry track route performances:
1. Breeders Futurity: middle move to the 1/8...flattened out
2. BC Juvenile: middle move to the 1/8...flattened out
3. San Felipe: middle move (up the rail) to the 1/8...flattened out
Muddy/sloppy performances:
1. Delta: took command early into the race; held sway. He\'s not going to show that speed ever again
2. SA Derby: per Kent: \"felt like he had cleats on\" in a a race where DC freaked and folded and Mor Spirit was on ice skates.
My take is he is far back early in a moderate pace, and makes a middle move to the 1/4 pole and flattens out on an 80 degree DRY track. Overbet, underlay and a toss.
DC rated just fine in his 2nd,3rd and 4th starts.
You can\'t assume he was rank because of the crowd.Because of the weather only 27,821 showed up on Santa Anita Derby day.
He ran his best race in the San Felipe when attendance was 27,259.
He broke his maiden opening day Dec 26th when they had their biggest crowd of the meet 44,873.
First two starts this year, on fast tracks, were lifetime tops. Before his next, would you have said he preferred wet?
Bingo!
Are Exaggerator fans concerned that he has been beaten 3 times by Nyquist, twice by Brody\'s Cause and traded decisions with Mor Spirit and Danzig Candy.
...... and only at like 9/2, with a few of 10-20-1shots with a punchers chance?
Mike,
Fair point, for sure.
But as I am sure you know, horses develop this time of their 3 year old seasons as they are maturing. I lean to reading Exaggerator as a nice developing horse, gradually getting better and I love his 3 year old season. 7 furlong sprint, middle move route conditioning run, bingo 3rd time out.
If you are against Nyquist, like I am, you have to read him as a bit flat-lined and a bit of an early developer. I am not so sure on that read, but I am going with that. I can\'t take the favorite at 7/2 with the 6th or 7th fastest horse, betting him on the come.
As for losing to Brody\'s Cause, they were 2 year old races. Night and day to 3 year old races.
just not a Mor Spirit fan, as you know as you/I went back forth on him 2 months ago. BAck then you liked him. I think he is grindy and NOT the typical BAffert type horse. I like betting Baffert with horses that have early run, where he gets them to stay the distance. Wouldn\'t shock me if Mor Spirit won, and I may use him as a \"C\" off of giving him a mulligan for the wet track race.
as for Danzig Candy, I have to use him. I don\'t like getting wired by a horse I know has talent and will make the lead in a relatively paceless 20 horse race with a horse who figures 20-1 in multi-race bets. He may run off, he may not get the distance, but he is a good gamble.
Rob
Rob,
I don\'t view your post as an attack. Obviously, we have very different opinions on how to interpret the data & apply it to this race. That\'s fine. I\'m always open to listening to another opinion. Right now neither one of us knows if either one of us is right. Any interpretation at this point is just an opinion until after they run the race, and sometimes even when we\'re right, we\'re still wrong when the official sign is posted. The game can be pretty humbling.
It would get pretty boring if everyone around here interpreted the data the same way. Even though the discussion centers around numbers, you\'re right. there are a lot of variables that go into each of our handicapping, and no 2 races ever are handicapped the same way.
Rob,
Exaggerator\'s San Felipe would concern me if he was my top choice, never should have blown second,a bit more than just saying he got wired. As for his big run in the SA Derby, seen far too many explosive slop winners that are not repeated on a dry surface,though that applies more to run off the screen speed horses.
Mike
Mike,
I am a bit worried he is better on wet tracks.
But of all the people on this board, very surprised to see you say that the end of the San Felipe, losing 2nd, would worry you (if you liked him). You are fond of saying \"race track fast\" or pointing out how much better a horse ran that somebody that beat him (because of things like trip or pace). Exaggerator middle moved with a sort of dumb/crazy harness type run in the SAn Felipe. Then tried the winner and got leg weary late and got passed by a complete suck-up move by Mor Spirit. To me eye, he ran WAY better in that race than Mor Spirit (not even close IMO). Much worse trip, middle moving from last into a decent pace. Mor Spirit just sat back and made one move later after Exaggerator made his run.
Two things bother me about Exaggerator. He MAY be better on a wet track (hard to say for sure either way, but could be). And the relative price in a race that I think is pretty wide open. He figures 6-1 or so, possibly a tad shorter. I have a view the race is particularly wide open this year, so in that case 6-1 is a bit light. While I think Exaggerator is the better horse and more likely winner, if Mor Spirit is 15-1 and Exaggerator is 6-1, not sure Exaggerator is that much better.
Rob
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> DC rated just fine in his 2nd,3rd and 4th starts.
>
> You can\'t assume he was rank because of the
> crowd.Because of the weather only 27,821 showed up
> on Santa Anita Derby day.
>
> He ran his best race in the San Felipe when
> attendance was 27,259.
>
> He broke his maiden opening day Dec 26th when they
> had their biggest crowd of the meet 44,873.
If by \"rate\" you mean he didn\'t run off, then he rated, but in fairness his line in those races says \"speed ... set pace\" so I don\'t really see any reason to think he will not lead/fight for it.
there are only a few horses that I can call explosive in this derby, and a couple are a bit slower, the two who look ready for the major move look to be brodys cause just back to the 2yr old top, and Mor sprirt, who did it before the SA derby. BC working well looks the best chance, and MS should get right back to that number now, didn\'t look to be used at all in the last two races. The rest have moved a bunch or had the payoff number. Using those 2 on top and keyed in all spots
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There is antidotal proof again this year that the
> California 3 year olds are an extremely strong
> group and Florida again no good.
Rob:
Is History a science?
Check out my timeline:
May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run uno, dos, tres in the
2015 Ky. Derby
Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and Ralis ship cross country and take
the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.
October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC Juvie.
November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes the Delta Jackpot, beating east
coast and midwest 2YOs.
Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based maidens come scary close to
winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would graded stakes committee do if both
these races were won by maidens?)
April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships cross country and easily defeats
Nowaymen.
April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected (Baffert) wins the Lexington Stakes.
Cal based maiden One More Round completes the exacta.
I was trying to think of a sports analogy to describe this Cal dominance; the
one which came to mind is actually a racing analogy... this kind of looks like
what happens when Euro turf runners ship to the U.S.
The Cal horses Nyquist, Exaggerator and Mor Spirit are the top three in
Haskin\'s Derby Dozen.
Before The Guru Jerry Brown weighs in, my opinions on the Cal contenders (all
contingent on post position):
1)Nyquit: has the lead at the eighth pole, then we see if he has had enough
preparation. I don\'t think so.
2) Exaggerator: Did he peak in the SA Derby? Carries the extra weight of small
Richiebee future wagers (pool 2&3). If you like him, you gotta hope that Kent
D.is not the \"Jockey Full of Bourbon\", at least before the race.
3) Mor Spirit: A square price on the trainer who has been OK in the Derby.
Never worse than second. Numbers make him competitive.
4) Danzing Candy: Absolutely agree, Rob. The price is right and he won\'t be
hard to find.
Oaks Day entries out today. Seminar and Derby Day entries out tomorrow. Let the
games begin
Rob,
You kinda stated it. Exaggerator looks better on his sheet than he does in carefully watching his races.Agree he makes very live runs and is quick burst type, his chance imo is one late run.None of the closers are even close in explosiveness.
Take a look at each of his defeats and a common thread is he doesn\'t finish with authority. The SA Derby was a walkover when his only 2 rivals didn\'t show up, combined with an uber meltdown.Did he really move forward or was the fig earned under optimal circumstances in his wheelhouse. Think it\'s a fair question as to whether he\'s a legit top contender or just another with a punchers chance.Interesting year in that several horses with good figs earned them in meltdown type preps with highly favorable set ups.
Tough year with lots of question marks,not a single horse who can make a mistake on Sat and still win, it appears.
Mike
Lol Ringato...I\'m well aware of this.
My analysis all began with Exaggerator\'s sheet. The protein so to speak. He\'s just solid...and fast.
I make him 15% to run a new top.
25% to pair.
25% small backward move(1-2)
20% large backward move (3-4)
15% X
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Is History a science?
>
> Check out my timeline:
>
> May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run
> uno, dos, tres in the
> 2015 Ky. Derby
>
> Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and Ralis
> ship cross country and take
> the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.
>
> October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC
> Juvie.
>
> November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes the
> Delta Jackpot, beating east
> coast and midwest 2YOs.
>
> Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based
> maidens come scary close to
> winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would
> graded stakes committee do if both
> these races were won by maidens?)
>
> April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships cross
> country and easily defeats
> Nowaymen.
>
> April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected (Baffert)
> wins the Lexington Stakes.
> Cal based maiden One More Round completes the
> exacta.
UPDATE
California based 3YOs account for 2/3rds of Triple Crown.
California based Laoban breaks maiden in Jim Dandy.
California based Songbird dominates East Coast fillies twice.
Baffert runners Drefong and Arrogate dominate on Travers Day; Baffert one two in the Travers.
Why are young horses developing so much faster on the West Coast? Why are the
best young horses ending up on West Coast?
All of the Best 3YO and Older Colt-Filly and Mare TURF horses are with Trainers based in the East. Why are there better Turf Trainers here than there?
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All of the Best 3YO and Older Colt-Filly and Mare
> TURF horses are with Trainers based in the East.
> Why are there better Turf Trainers here than
> there?
On original and follow up query -- could applicable drug testing regimens have an impact? Also, do drugs have a different impact on different surfaces?
richiebee Wrote:
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> richiebee Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > Is History a science?
> >
> > Check out my timeline:
> >
> > May 2015, Louisville, Ky: Cal based horses run
> > uno, dos, tres in the
> > 2015 Ky. Derby
> >
> > Summer 2015, Spendatoga, NY: Exaggerator and
> Ralis
> > ship cross country and take
> > the Saratourist Special and the Hopeful.
> >
> > October, 2015, Lexington Ky: Nyquist wins BC
> > Juvie.
> >
> > November 2015, Delta Downs: Exaggerator takes
> the
> > Delta Jackpot, beating east
> > coast and midwest 2YOs.
> >
> > Winter/Spring 2016, Ozone Park, NY: Cal based
> > maidens come scary close to
> > winning both the Gotham and Wood (what would
> > graded stakes committee do if both
> > these races were won by maidens?)
> >
> > April 2, 2016, Hallandale, FL: Nyquist ships
> cross
> > country and easily defeats
> > Nowaymen.
> >
> > April 16, 2016, Lexington Ky: Collected
> (Baffert)
> > wins the Lexington Stakes.
> > Cal based maiden One More Round completes the
> > exacta.
>
> UPDATE
>
> California based 3YOs account for 2/3rds of Triple
> Crown.
>
> California based Laoban breaks maiden in Jim
> Dandy.
>
> California based Songbird dominates East Coast
> fillies twice.
>
> Baffert runners Drefong and Arrogate dominate on
> Travers Day; Baffert one two in the Travers.
>
> Why are young horses developing so much faster on
> the West Coast? Why are the
> best young horses ending up on West Coast?
FURTHER UPDATE:
Drefong and Arrogate take BC races.
Sonneteer (Cal based maiden) runs second in 2017 Rebel.
Irap (Cal based maiden) wins 2017 Blue Grass.
Before yesterday\'s Blue Grass, TVG hosts (and Dale Romans in a TVG interview)
were critical of the fact that the Toyota Blue Grass was downgraded from Gr I
to Gr II (as was the Wood Memorial); this was before known speed rider J.
Leparoux took the field virtually coast to coast on Doug O\'Neill trained maiden
Irap.
It might get to the point where racetracks make these prep races
\"Invitationals\" to preclude the possibility of a maiden prevailing, followed by
downgrading by the graded stakes committee, though I do not know in terms of
nomination fees if this would be an expensive decision.
Frank says this will be a Derby reminiscent of Giacomo\'s shocker. After
Gormley\'s re-emergence yesterday, it is likely that at least we will be seeing
the Moss colors in the starting gate.
The California 3YOs were hindered by poor weather early in the winter; the two
top Cal 3YOs (Mastery and Unique Bella) are currently on the shelf, but I will
be looking more closely at any West Coast runner that makes it to Louisville.
As of right now, Gormley (ranked 2d), Irap (3d) and Battle of Midway (16) are
the only Cal based candidates with sufficient points to start in the Derby.
Royal Mo (22), Iliad (24) and Sonneteer (26) would all need help.
(Interestingly, BC Juvie champ Classic Empire is currently ranked 21st). (As of
this moment Bob Baffert\'s top candidates are ranked 35th and 39th).