Ok, can someone please help me understand the huge difference in figs. In no way is this knocking the numbers, I just want to better understand how it was made.
I\'m using Eagle and Gun Runner from 3/26
Eagle 3w3w, carries 119lbs, final time 150.50
Gun Runner 1w2w, carries 122lbs, final time 151.06
Eagle got the wider trip yet Gun Runner carried more weight, time difference was about .50 seconds off (roughly).
We end up with final figs of...
Eagle -0[2]
Gun Runner 5
Once again just hoping someone can educate me, thanks to all who participate in these board discussions.
Brandon
Rob,
Classic meltdown.First three finishers trailed for the first 6f of an extremely fast pace(pace 10 lengths faster than older/much faster graded stake types)Think first 3 could hit derby board with a similar meltdown otherwise rather doubtful.
Nyquist and Exaggerator would seem to have nailed down the favorite, second choice role, the rest not very clear.
Weakest preps overall in many years but derby may be a better betting proposition because of it.
Mike
Obviously, only TGJB could precisely indicate how the figures were arrived at, but I can offer some things I\'ve learned from reading the board over the years that might be helpful.
You appear to be using the time-honored assumption that one length equals one-fifth of a second. I think TG uses a number less than that. I remember reading something about 0.16 seconds, but I don\'t know if that\'s accurate or if it applies at all distances.
Using that and the difference in ground loss (3 lengths), it is easy to get to a difference a bit more than 6 lengths, which would translate (at just over .5 points per length at 9f) to a difference in figures a bit higher than 3.25 points. Knock off 0.6 points for the difference in weight, and you are at maybe 2.75 points.
As for the rest of the difference, there are two possible sources I can think of. One is rounding. All of the path figures you see on the sheet are rounded to the nearest whole number. TG actually determines a horse\'s path at more than one point on each turn and averages those data points to get the path used in calculating the figure. The final figure is also rounded to the nearest quarter point.
Finally, but probably most significantly, there is changing track speed. The two races were separated by two hours. TG would not assume that the track speed was the same for both races.
Bit,
Not a nitpick but .17 is the accepted time used for 1 length. I\'ll let JB answer but using raw time is not always how figs are made here, sometimes they are disregarded.
Look at Cupid and and Upstart\'s last race on same day and get me 6 TG points of difference after adjusting ground and weight, doesn\'t come close to reconciling by the clock
Mike
Mike -
I stand corrected on the time per length.
As for how time is used, my impression (possibly inaccurate) from reading the board is that TGJB gets a computer readout with suggested figures for the whole card that is based on ground, weight, and the clock and then adjusts each race individually from there (adding or subtracting the same number of points to or from the figures of all of the horses in the race). That adjustment is based on the prior figures of the horses in the race. I think of that as an adjustment for track speed (also wind, I guess), but I suppose one could also think of it as replacing the clock component.
As a novice player, and this is a bit off subject, but I\'ll post anyway. I can only speak on the KD for the most part, but I\'ll assume it carries through. Don\'t spend too much time questioning any single number. The number\'s are as accurate as you are going to get on a final time, weight, ground adjusted basis. TG\'s creativity throughout the race card is what sets it apart. As MJ stated last week, the only service to nail the Wood in messy conditions for many years now.
I\'m a fairly competitive cyclists, so I do a lot of doping and wind analysis to try and come to an output number after the TG, but the TG always comes first without question as to how he arrived there. This years Wood will be a good example, the Tampa Derby also. The wind shifted 90-120 degrees to out of the north between 02:45 and 3:30 on wood day. This wreaks as much, if not more havoc on the pace conditions than changing track surface conditions. Without the database and creative licensing, there is no way to trust any number out there for the Big A that day. Tampa is another day, Modest wind til about 04:30, then 15-25 mph til about 07:00 that night. That particular wind was out of the South, and with the configuration of that track, it almost assured that the way they turned for home was the way they would finish on an output level. FWIW, Outwork benefited significantly from both scenarios IMO. Trojan Nation Benefited from a rail skimming ride that would\'ve made Calvin and MTB blush, appears he was running on an untouched still sealed part of the track for the last 1/2.
Anyway, this is why for as much as I like Mo Tom, I have to trust the number and justify what will be an unprecedented jump in the number to bet him. Can it happen, sure, but no way taking a shot as the fifth betting choice.
Re Cupid/Upstart on 3/19, yes the track was changing speed, and not just for those two races-- there were races I added more to than Cupid\'s, and took off more from than the Razorback. So far the work is holding up, we\'ll see.
The difference in variant I used for the two FG races on 3/26 was negligible, less than a point. The rest is going to be time, weight and ground differentials.
The issue with the Rebel is not whether I had the race too slow, it\'s whether you think ground loss and weight should be factored into the figure. I gave out a lot of good figures in that race, just not to the winner. And the fast ones ran back to them yesterday.
Meanwhile, finally just got a look at the replay. Some ride by Santana on Creator.
Yep-- stayed inside while everyone else played by the rules and went outside knowing that who was in front of them would be stopping.
No worries for Santana ---he\'s figuring I\'ll save ground then I\'ll just cut horses off if they\'re in my way and bang into Whitmore while I\'m at it.
Some ride indeed.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Agree on the ride going 3W coming for home as opposed to SBN going 6W was the difference in win and place..
I used the 1 a little too (5 horse exacta, tri and super box, pressed the top 4). He had a little trouble, but didn\'t have much run after that, don\'t think it made much if any difference.
According to Ortiz Whitmore clipped heels early, don\'t know whether that made any difference either
You were smarter than me. I pressed hard with the 1 underneath in all the exotics.
Would have liked the chance which IMO was taken away from him. Interesting that of all the closers, Discreetness and the winner exhibit the superior turn of foot.
Not sure if Creator can win the Derby, but pretty sure that Whit and SBN cannot.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Curious y do you say SBN can\'t win the derby I like his chances.
SBN may get in the tri or super but I don\'t like his chances of winning. I just don\'t think he can sustain that kick going longer nor do I think he\'s as good as the Cal horses.
Good Luck,
Joe B