is my Derby horse. Probably just ran the best figure again, despite early trouble.
Bumped hard by winner in stretch looked like it knocked him off stride and lost mo.
I think the early trouble was worse. He damn near could have went down. Lot of them more or less are empty after a mile after that. And having to shift out and go 6 wide on the second turn to rally didn\'t improve his chances of winning either.
I still have my doubts about him being good enough to win the KY Derby though. But I guess I\'m happy my future tickets are alive if he stays sound.
Better make a trip to Arthur Ave and pay respects to Mrs.Mush
How does Santana get away with wiping out 2 horses that were running??
Oh, that\'s right--- it\'s Asmussen.
Good Luck,
Joe B
was there a jockey objection? I turned it off having 4 7 8 boxed.
So far as I can tell, Whitmore and SBN will get a very similar fig. Whitmore lost a bit more ground, but that\'s offset by the margin and SBN giving 4 pounds. He ran a bang up race, that\'s for sure.
A couple of other thoughts. The top three came from way back, but it was the only route like that. Lots of two turn races on the day, and all the other tri finishers were within 5 lengths at the half (bar one). These three were double that.
For the Collmus call critics (he deserved it, admittedly), in the stretch the caller said, \"Creator is not going to get the job done\". Probably meant \"Cupid\", but shows how tough that job is.
The equibase chart of the race is incorrect. It has Creator a head in front of SBN at the final call. It\'s more like 2 lengths. Whitmore was 2nd by a head over SBN.
Edit: They\'ve changed the chart, but it\'s still wrong. At the stretch call, they have the top four separated by a neck.
MJ (and others who like Whitmore),
Sorry, but watched the replay a few times and don\'t see what you are seeing.
Yes, he was cut off early, but it was certainly well short of \"almost going down\". And while wide, he had no punch late and is not likely that the extra distance is going to do him any good. He got the jump on SuddenBreakingNews, but was passed by that one late fairly easily. The pace was fast and considering that and where he was early, he would need to run much better than he did late to be a legitimate Derby horse.
Not even sure he would be somebody you could use for 3rd or 4th.
Guess that\'s what makes this game interesting. I see a slow slug and others see a trip horse.....
Rob
I don\'t want what I am saying about Whitmore to be taken out of context.
All I\'ve said is I doped him out two months ago and put a future bet on him at 50-1. I also pressed that at 40 something to one in pool 3 and boxed him in exactas in that pool with Brody\'s Cause, Danzing Candy, Nyquist, Mohaymen, and Mor Spirit. What I liked about him was he seemed athletic enough to overcome trouble, can make multiple moves in a race, broke his maiden at Churchill and has the breeding to get the distance.
I have also said I don\'t know if he\'s good enough to win the Derby. He idles in the lane, which means he either waits on horses or has distance issues. To win the Derby he would have to overcome those and probably move forward too. Bid you asked me today I would say he\'s not good enough to win. But he\'s got a shot to hit the board, and the price will be right.
As far as today goes I bet he has a pretty good gash on his front leg from that early trouble. He full on tripped, and a less athletic horse would have went down or at least not recovered and ran on later like he did. Watch the replay again. He also went awfully wide on the 2nd turn. I\'m thinking he ran a pretty good race and figure. His sheet will probably look pretty good.
But in no way shape or form have I said he is my Derby horse. Nor do I think the exactas I have with him are the best ones to have. But that\'s what I was thinking a month or two ago.
To be honest, I still think there\'s at least 10 colts that I could see keying in the Derby this year. Looking for one now that trains forwardly and has the look like they will take to the surface and distance. Then there\'s the draw, which could change my mind. And in the end they have to get the trip. I don\'t see a standout. The favorite hasn\'t even run the fastest. I am not locked onto him, Whitmore or anyone else. Whitmore just happens to be my future bet and I\'m glad he has the points to get in and a decent looking sheet.
I thought he had a horrid trip as well, with the start being worse then the stretch. Wide again all the way around the far turn. It\'s unfortunate, I wanted to see how he would finish and finally get a \"true\" read into his distance capabilities.
I\'m still not sure if he\'s waiting or exhausted or what? I feel like he\'s super nimble and athletic. There\'s certainly something there and you can make multiple excuses for him again today. That said, I\'m starting to doubt that he\'ll get 10? I expected them to have him a bit more forwardly placed and obviously the early thrashing ruined any of that. Despite getting no clarity on that one saturday I find myself liking him less then I did going into the race, is that a mistake?
Side note, I bet him yesterday...my girlfriend had the 3...I placed the bet for her, always stings
Another vanilla prep with a 96 Beyer, TF same equivalent, both like TG 2.5 with a giant positive pace flow to deep closers(+9 vs -9 to speed,highest of any prep)Winner only beat maidens prior to yesterday, looks a stayer.
Whitmore has never won a two turn race, think he hangs a little late, excuses aside, may need to make last possible run to get lucky.Several in derby with exact late closing style.
SBN looks a staying late closer also
Top Ark derby finishers plus both \"Tom\" horses will need a Giacomo type meltdown to possibly win derby.
Will be a little surprised if Cupid runs in derby after being torched.
I watched the replay 5 times. Unless he dramatically improves off of the race, I don\'t see Whitmore out kicking anyone at 1 1/4. That\'s twice he\'s leveled off in deep stretch.
Best effort in the race was Gettysburg who should make some noise somewhere down the road. The winner took advantage of the circumstances so hats off to him. (Btw: Santana should sit for a week after cutting off the 1 and slamming the 8 but why should any rules apply when it comes to Asmussen & Co.)
Still think the winner comes out of SA Derby.
Good Luck,
Joe B
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Will be a little surprised if Cupid runs in derby
> after being torched.
Can\'t see Baffert chasing the Derby with him which leaves only Danzing Candy and Outwork on the front end.
Key to the pace and a meltdown is whether Danzing Candy runs off again or not.
He lost it in the SA Derby and his damsire Songandaprayer certainly did in his Kentucky Derby.
Big,
If Cupid goes to derby you can bet he will not be a dead send like yesterday, horse has never really been speed crazy in am.
Mike
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So far as I can tell, Whitmore and SBN will get a
> very similar fig. Whitmore lost a bit more
> ground, but that\'s offset by the margin and SBN
> giving 4 pounds. He ran a bang up race, that\'s
> for sure.
>
> A couple of other thoughts. The top three came
> from way back, but it was the only route like
> that. Lots of two turn races on the day, and all
> the other tri finishers were within 5 lengths at
> the half (bar one). These three were double that.
>
>
> For the Collmus call critics (he deserved it,
> admittedly), in the stretch the caller said,
> \"Creator is not going to get the job done\".
> Probably meant \"Cupid\", but shows how tough that
> job is.
>
> The equibase chart of the race is incorrect. It
> has Creator a head in front of SBN at the final
> call. It\'s more like 2 lengths. Whitmore was 2nd
> by a head over SBN.
>
> Edit: They\'ve changed the chart, but it\'s still
> wrong. At the stretch call, they have the top
> four separated by a neck.
\"We fixed it!\"
\"Oh, no, you didn\' \'t . . . \"
:-(
Not sure it\'s fair to say the finish was due to a pace meltdown in Arky. Sure, Cupid melted down, but Gettysburg did not. The final fraction was the fastest of any dirt prep this year - which maybe says more about this crop than anything.
Also makes me upgrade Nyquist\'s race, and I\'ll hold my nose and take a second look at the Spiral winner (which had the quickest final fraction).
Edit: My Man Sam might have gotten home a bit quicker in his than the top two in Arky.
Like you say only two that\'s preferred style is on the front end. That\'s crazy and makes me think you\'ll see a suprise or two being sent, like Commissioner in the Belmont. With everybody wanting to come from off the pace I could certainly see easy fractions. You never know, but at face value a pace melt down seems unlikely.
I realize Outwork isn\'t popular around here but depending on the draw he could have it his way for sure. Where does an \"honest\" pace potentially come from in this race?
The second half mile was raced app 30 lengths slower than the first half and all three top finishers were very far back the first half.
Very abnormal pace flow according to flow data. Your point re final 1/8th follows a split near 27 seconds, not that exciting.
I agree not exciting, but the laggards didn\'t run that middle fraction. Creator made that in about :25 1/5 - which makes the last 5/16s in :37 4/5. That\'s what Exaggerator did in his last, with about the same ground loss.
Whitmore and SBN were marginally slower while being much wider. And this on a track that wasn\'t blazing. 1:49 flat for the Classic runner-up in beating the Big Cap winner.
It\'s one thing to lay down 12 somethings all they way around in 6 horse fields. It\'s something else altogether doing it going wide and splitting horses on a crowded track.
It will be interesting to see what happens with regard to Whitmore\'s jockey. Will Irad abandon Chad Brown and Shagaf to ride Whitmore?