I\'m not a figure maker and I have complete confidence in thorograph ( use their figures exclusively) but having tremendous difficulty accepting outwork\' wood number.
Don\'t buy it tgjb
Stupid question were can one go to the see all the numbers given to the preps?
Thanks
The demeanor of many board posters is incredible. Try reading the Thoroubred daily news
I post very rarely because each time I do I get insulted. But my guess is I\'ve bred, raised, raced, and sold more horses than 99% of the critics
\"Stupid question or stupid answer?
Ditto. I\'m an equal opportunity Sheets user but JB gets big props for the TDN Derby Top 12 List exposure. Been checking out and saving those PDFs every week.
Hope it\'s OK to post the link to today\'s edition with the info http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pdf/tdn/tdn160414.pdf TG hyperlinks for the 12 horses on Finley\'s list begin on pg 9
I think you totally misinterpreted that, I took his post to mean \"Stupid question (of mine), but where can I find this info?\"
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stupid question were can one go to the see all the
> numbers given to the preps?
> Thanks
My apologies. Guess my thin skin got me again.lol
Ehh, tomato, tomahtoe. :) The man working the gas station counter bought my coffee and granola bar this morning and told me to pay it forward so don\'t mind doing anything kind today, even something as small as sharing a link to help my fellow neighbor.
Good luck y\'all. Looking to make some money at Keeneland tomorrow with the City Zip colt Peppermint Zip getting first turf in R5, and Reload and Shug (\"win one for Dinny\") in the G1. I rarely bet him but Eoin\'s 8-1 looks sneaky in R6 given its crazy fitness regimen after the first start and Todd\'s #9 at ML evens has me thinking Jerry\'s acclimatization angle might be in effect.
Dan,
Think Cupid\'s TG fig is way more tough to swallow than Outworks. The slowest fig for Cupid I\'ve seen is 3 points faster than his TG fig.
Sometimes figs don\'t seem to make sense.
Mike
He can win on Saturday I guess and pace scenario might favor him once again, but I\'m not a big Cupid fan in general and am secretly hoping he airs in AR Derby because the grey/Baffert/Bodemeister/Pharaoh angles will make him a popular horse and he\'s an absolutely toss for me in KYD.
Tapit is so sketchy for the Derby to begin with but this guy just doesn\'t seem as \"special\" as even maybe The Factor. DRF are fawning over him but I tend to trust how slow he is on TG/Sheets. And it\'s not like Cherry Wine\'s Bluegrass really flatters the Rebel much.
More than anything, that 7lb weight swing is the pits for Cupid plus he has now gives 4lb to Whitmore, Dazzling Gem (who actually now drops 4lb off LA Derby), etc.
Gettsburg is likewise slow, overrated, in a bad post and will get some tote action so he\'s an easy dismissal too.
I like Dazzling Gem especially at 12-1 ML plus he\'s already beaten a few of these inclu #5 at 8-1 ML. Whitmore is OK on TG and I understand why people fancy him but he wants to hang a bit too much for my taste.
If Cupid ran much faster than that then what did Whitmore run? He was much wider on both turns and carried a few lb\'s more than Cupid. There were at least 2 other decent 1 1/16 races that day too, including one with American Pioneer and one with Unbridled Outlaw. FWIW I think the Cupid fig is about right.
That being said, I like the way Whitmore weaved out, in and out again in traffic in the Rebel. He listened to his jock and went where and when when asked. That\'s very helpful in the Ky Derby. But I agree that he hangs or waits on horses. He also flopped back to his wrong lead at the end of the Rebel, which I haven\'t heard anyone point out. Tough to say if he was gassed or green. I would say gassed if I had to. But IMO he still should have won the a Rebel. Curious to see how he runs at 1 1/8th.
Mlnolan,
Nice to see you back and this time in the midst of a potential firestorm. Yet you make several great points so succinctly. Love that you consider crowd psychology with humor in PP1.
Since you are somewhat of a pedigree expert it is reassuring when I see you doubt Tapit as a legit classic influence, as do I.
Cupid is probably overrated. He had it all his way in the Rebel yet Dazzling Gem disappointed me in La., even though resilient to get 3rd. Maybe its Gunrunner whose #\'s are misleading.
Cupid is not yet a proven need-to-lead front runner. In the Rebel the first he looked like a classic Baffert trainee. Note - he is a May foal? and now his sheet doesn\'t suggest a bounce candidate after the # TGJB gave him in the last.
I\'m expecting Dazzling Gem to contest at least the first 6F and that could create chaos. I\'ll be cheering for American Pioneer who almost caught the Gem @ 1 mile in their first meeting!
Gettysburg, reminded even trainers winning at a 30%+ clip lose two out of three.
Good Luck
If you believe in adjusting for weight and ground Cupids number is 100% definitely right. He got something like the fourth or fifth best figure that day, and they\'re all back Saturday.
What\'s the problem with the Outwork figure? The total range of possibilities there was one point, by memory. Again, if you account for ground.
Nice meeting you as well.
With such an impressive resume in the business,one would hope they would share that knowledge.
In the future if I ever decide to ask you a question again,I will word it more delicately as I would not want to cause a rise in your blood pressure.
Good Luck to you.
John
Regardless of what Cupid runs on Sat his last TG fig is no where near reflective of his on track performance that day. Just look at the race carefully start to finish esp the start, final turn, last 1/16th.TG fig inflated by lack of ground loss and 115.Look at the time of the Upstart race that day(know all about Upstart weight and ground loss)
Outwork\'s Wood highlights ground loaded.Slowest Wood in many moons on the clock but he did all the running,the pace was very fast and contested.Surprised with the slow maiden slug finishing second that JB made the race that fast.Beyer and TF adjusted are not far off what JB has(both like TG 1.50)
Mike,
Both cases IMHO are prime examples of your eyes interpreting how the figure was earned. I agree with your assessment of Cupid\'s visual being more impressive than his figure. That doesn\'t mean I won\'t be against him tomorrow. The flip side being the visual of the Wood is pathetic and Outwork is not even a derby consideration for moi.
I keep re watching the Wood and trying to make a legitimate excuse for Shagaf, breaking slow, getting stopped cold on the turn and hitting traffic a second time.
This one intrigues me, bred to run all day, athletic enough to get tactical position,IMHO as bad as this race was he should have overcome his adversity for a better showing.If he got that discouraged in the Wood it does not bode well for May 7th. The good news is he should be 30/1 now and remains a tri and super consideration here if he trains well up to the race.
The way Kiaran is going it wouldn\'t surprise me to see Chad end up with a lot more Shadwell\'s?
Oklahoma opened for training this morning, only 97 days to opening day at the Spa!
Hi Frank:
Shagaf may be bred to run all day but visually (at least so far),he doesn\'t look it.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Frank,
Gonna be interesting derby for sure. Gigantic,so to speak, differences in several preps re speed/performance figs from the major services. Tosses at one service will be A\'s on others.
Still think correctly guessing Mohaymen a key to cashing verticals.
.....charge!
Mike
Hard for me to take Destin seriously, we\'ve seen this before from the barn. See Dream of Julia and Materiality to name a few, that is big figs in FLA that don\'t seem to happen again anywhere else. Let\'s not forget this was the same horse who started in NOLA and was beaten by Mo Tom and Tom\'s Ready. How in the world was Destin able to achieve this fig off just 4 weeks and staying at the same exact distance as his last race. Typically when you see an increase or decrease in distance that can explain a jump up but almost 8 full points, COME ON MAN!!
Destin\'s last is very fast at all the reliable services. Outworks Wood can be seen as some type of confirmation of Tampa race. Quirky Tampa surface and 8 weeks spacing very tough read for Destin in spite of TAP\'s good work with layoffs similar to this.
Yes, by all accounts the only colt with a negative number. Brings up an earlier point that now Trojan Nation had a superior move forward? Lots of confusion about this crop.
The margin of victory, Outwork vs Trojan Nation does not come close to telling the story of the Wood, Outwork way better than head better
I think TGJB brought this up on earlier discussions about pace not determining final fig. I do agree with you that it was the better race by far after pressing very strong fractions.
Not to be overly contentious, but it\'s not uncommon for young horses to make huge leaps forward. From any barn.
Not too dissimilar from U2\'s \"Angel of Harlem\". It was a cold, wet december day when we touched the ground at JFK ( actually La Guardia). First timer won and ran a 16. Next race in a stake back at the four county town he won running an 18. Next start going from 6 to 7 furlongs he explodes to an 8. I suppose one could say it was the distance change, but i wouldn\'t.
Mike,
Really not relevant how much better Outwork was than Trojan Nation. Trojan Nation a tremendously slow horse. Both are ugly tosses and think both will finish in bottom 8 of Derby horses if they run.
Very curious as to why you think Mohaymen is a key to the verticals. Horse was disgusting last time out, as have most of Kiaran\'s horses been lately. Horse not gonna be a short price, at least not less than 7-1 or so. When was the last horse to win the Derby off a performance as bad as Mohaymen\'s was?
Rob
Rob,
Looking at it thru different peep hole perhaps. Outwork was wide early/late into a vicious quarter and a contested pace all the way.Several services have the race fast. The suck up slug,like the one behind him,frequently overachieve when vicious paces are in front of them,sometimes beating or coming close to horses that tower over them in a fairly run race. Outwork may be a serious horse,is highly thought of by TAP barn,I\'m not a fan for derby off that gut wrencher going 10f and looking a bit like he wants to be on the lead or fighting for it.
As far as Moyhaymen, could write a page why his last horrific performance PERHAPS deserves a wet track/shoe mulligan.His races prior to Fl derby just too solid to dismiss him unless you are of the opionin that his lack of physical attributes have already put him over the top, I\'m conflicted as of now. Hate getting beat by fast horses, no problem getting beat by a slow slug.I know his training in Florida was purposely managed to the lighter side.
Since Moyhaymen should be one of the top 5 choices, using or tossing could pay well. If he reverts to his best, he could win.
Mike
Mike
Fair enough. We aren\'t that far off. I don\'t disagree that Outwork could be a nice horse, but not a derby horse, which is all I care about with regards to him right now.
Looking at TG figs in the Thoroughbred daily news is confusing and certainly debatable. (I am sure host won\'t agree...)
So, Cupid\'s win last race is on par with Mohaymen\'s no-show and Gun-Runner\'s win. Hmm.... No thanks, not buying that at all.
Mor Spirit\'s sheet a complete mess. No explanation - up, down, up, down. HAs long been a toss for me, but technically at his best, he is a contender.
Exaggerator should be favored if you were basing the derby odds purely on TG sheets. Co-fastest with solid spacing, only 2 points of develpment from 2 year old year, with a late developing sire. You should just have to forget that the wet track may have helped. (or get a wet track derby day)
Gonna be interesting.
Rob
It\'s a quirky strip, but the form of the Tampa race has held up very very well. Two have come out to win Grade 1s. Even Star Hill and Tale of S\'avall got closer to the winner in those than they did to Destin. We\'ll see if Riker makes any noise this weekend. (Zulu didn\'t do much to flatter Mohaymen, by contrast.)
Point is that the fig for Destin seems well-earned. Whether he can run back to it in Churchill is another matter, but the large break makes me think they\'re trying something new. Given their history in May, that\'s probably not a bad idea.
So I\'m not trying to be a knob here, but Rob what do you mean when you say:
\"So, Cupid\'s win last race is on par with Mohaymen\'s no-show and Gun-Runner\'s win. Hmm.... No thanks, not buying that at all.\"
Because if you are saying what I think you are saying - that Cupid ran faster, then what did Whitmore, Creator, Cut A Corner, & Sudden Breaking News run in the Rebel? If you make Cupid\'s number faster you have to make all theirs faster too. That doesn\'t seem to make sense to me based on what I am seeing on the TG\'s for tomorrow at Oaklawn. You gonna make Whitmore the fastest 3 year old in the country? Plus, if you make the Rebel faster on a pretty straight forward day then you probably have to make American Pioneer\'s number and Unbridled Outlaw\'s number faster too, or de-couple those 1 1/16th races on the same day from the Rebel. And then what do you do with Upstart\'s race? That was 1 1/16th distance too, also run same day as the Rebel. You\'ve got older horses in there with more form to go on. Do you de-couple that one from the Rebel too, all just to make Cupid and everyone else in the Rebel faster?
If you are saying Mohaymen\'s number should be slower than it is, then Nyquist had to run slower too. How big of an off race can you have him running and still winning the FL Derby? To my eye I guess it depends upon what you think of the ones that ran 2nd (Majesto) and 3rd (Fellowship). You think they ran off races too and took 2nd and 3rd? If so, how much slower could they have run and still have the rest of the figures make sense?
If you are saying Gun Runner\'s LA Derby should be faster than it is, I could maybe see making that argument. But you still have some problems to reconcile with the horses that ran behind him. I could maybe see arguing the LA Derby is a point faster. Any more than that and then you have to have a couple moving forward or running numbers that really don\'t make sense, like Mo Tom for example who had a ton of trouble.
It\'s one thing to say you question a figure. I get that. I question figures all the time. But then you have to be able to back that up, and what you say needs to make sense.
So what did you mean?
alright MJ,
Here is what I am saying.
I have heard TGJB (and Rags guys) say ground loss is simply geometry. And I guess it is, but I have been using sheets a long time and I can smell a phony ground loss loaded figure a mile away. And similarly can see a sheets figure that understates actual performance on the track.
Mohaymen ran MUCH worse than a \"TG-5\". He was empty on the turn and his ground loss was mostly irrelevant. Anybody that thinks ground loss hurt him in that race needs to find a better excuse. Mike says he can think of a few. Maybe the wet track he is bred for or maybe the disgusting run the entire Kiaran barn has been on. But as I posted earlier today, somebody please point to a recent derby winner that ran as badly as Mohaymen in their last prep before they won the Derby.
As I stated on the board right after Cupid\'s win, his race was MUCH better than the 5 he earned. How many horses blow the start, gun through to the front anyway, seemingly bump into the rail or at least swerve badly towards it in the stretch, get passed, then rebreak after having set a fast pace. He MIGHT lose tomorrow to SuddenbreakingNews or Whitmore, but the \"much faster\" TG figs they have earned do NOT reflect what happened on the race track when they ran against Cupid.
As for GunRunner\'s 5. I just think the race was graded too slow. Not to mention the fact that he showed tactical speed in the race, which was new to his game and IMO often a sign of a horse rounding into form.
Rob
Rob,
A TG 3 for Cupid would be ballpark, he received a TG 5 1/2. You can do that day\'s routes six ways to Sunday and not arrive at 5 1/2. It\'s not relevant to me what the horses behind Cupid would then have to get as those figs are ground loaded.
Mike
Mike,
Yes, typo. Meant to say \"5\" and corrected original post.
Thanks.
I understand what you mean by ground loaded figure. I would usually prefer my horse to be 3 wide in the clear on the turn than be 2 wide stuck in between two other horses. And the figure doesn\'t always tell the whole story. I get it.
Based on that, I could agree that you can say Cupid\'s race was better than the number is because he broke poorly and rushed up. I also agree with your comment about Gun Runner showing more tactical speed and this often being a sign of horse about to improve. His sheet would seem to say he should be sitting on a forward move, and maybe a big one. Which is what he would need to win the Derby. To my eye he may be the most athletic horse in the prospective field, with a very quick turn of foot. I wonder what he would do on the grass or synthetic.
But in the end, the TG numbers are based on a formula. Once you establish one horse\'s figure in the race, the rest have to follow the methodology. And I would disagree that Nyquist is slower, Gun Runner and Cupid are faster than what their TG number is. They ran what they ran. We will see what they run tomorrow. At least Dazzeling Gem is in the ARK Derby. He ran in the LA Derby, so that may give some comparison.
MJ-- first of all, you have to stop making so much sense.
Re Dazzling Gem, if I remember right he was sick and missed some training before his last, and shipped south into FG. I expect a forward move tomorrow.