http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-point-standings
horses taking a ton of money (1) - Nyq
horses taking serious money (6) - Gun R, Exagg, Brody, Mor Spirit, Destin, Cupid
horses taking some money (8) - Outwork, Mohay, Danzing, Shagaf, Mo Tom, Whit, Suddenbreak, Sam
15 horses will take at least some action. if they all stay sound, this will be the best betting Derby I have ever seen.
Michael D.
Hope all is well buddy, good run by the CUSE to get to the final 4.
SuddenBreakingNews is going to have to run 2nd in Arkansas to even make the derby and Unbridled Cowboy is going to be quite a wild card in that race to possibly knock someone out.
The late close by Sam today heading Cherry Wine is looking like the difference in whether one is in and the other out. More of the same next week?
hey Frank. the Orange looked like a top 10 team for much of the year. wasn\'t a big surprise to me (tho a 2nd round game vs Mich St would have been very difficult).
yeah, Suddenbreak will have to get 2nd. I was thinking 25 points for 3rd, but it\'s only 20. Whitmore looks pretty safe, needing only 4th. where is Unbridled Cowboy coming from?
He ran on Rebel day and per brand R ran as fast as the Rebel winner? I haven\'t seen TG for that day yet. Another Romans wild card.
Assume you mean Unbridled Outlaw, though I can\'t see that one getting a better number than Cupid - since UO didn\'t even win on the lead. Fourth of July looks to be the one of interest out of that race.
30 points and some expected attrition likely gets in the Derby field.
Edit: 4th of July is a 4 year old, so the performance of Unbridled Outlaw was very solid, off a layoff, against older. Still don\'t see the better fig to Cupid though.
AJ,
That\'s what I thought until Fairmount pointed out that 4th July born a year too early for this year\'s derby. But I want to see him run back after his last.
Thanks AJ your assumption is correct. Must have been thinking Waylon and Wille, cowboys, outlaws same bunch! LOL
Nice system. A maiden, a poly winner and a UAE derby snail get a stall in derby and 3 faster horses will not make it.
Miff,
Would you have deprived the world of Eddie the Eagle?
Two maidens perhaps. Laoban sitting in 21st at 32 points. A wise choice by the Ramseys and some sniffles from a couple of others and he\'s in.
Seems easily fixed. Make the conditions for the bigger preps for winners only. I suppose one could argue that if these other faster horses can\'t finish in front of maidens . . . .
Hope Laoban gets in, more speed to ensure honest pace. Laoban not awful considering speed was nfg at Kee on Sat(one wire by a 3-5 shot all day)Bias data comes up closers/negative speed.
Bluegrass a bit of a fraud in that horses laying 11th, 14th,12th,after the first quarter, finished 1,2,3.
Only possible pace unless a surprise 1-2 finisher in the Arkansas Derby with gas would be:
Outwork
Nyquist
Cupid
Danzing Candy status to be determined after take no prisoners quarter horse out of the gate strategy failed miserably.
Laoban in would help.
More closer types than any other style signed on for the race as of today.
Mike,
Laoban will need mass defections to get in. He is one of 4 with 32 points and has the least earnings of the 4. There are 17 horses above that group with 40 or more points and barring injury or sickness they all look like they will enter.
Whitmore only needs a 4th place finish in Arkansas to get to 34 points, Dazzling Gem 20 points will run next Saturday a 3rd place gets him in, SBN with a 2nd can make the field and there will be 2 well thought of wild cards in Unbridled Outlaw and American Pioneer. Mo Tom with 32 and tops in earnings of that bunch may be lucky to get in?
And not just closers but deep closers. Whitmore looks like a stalker against this bunch.
Exaggerator/Mo Tom/My Man Sam/SBN will be 25 lengths back.
Frank,
Seems Loaban will need help for sure.Would like to see Whitmore get in, shows very live internal,sharp late run.
Tough year, no Chrome or Amer Pharoah going in.
Mike
Miff,
The moment the maiden crossed the wire in second I told my dad \"This is what the points system gets Churchill, a maiden in the Derby.\"
Two thoughts have come to mind.
1. Altering the points system would not prevent this occurrence but if they want to stick with this system, change seems in order. Going against Trojan Nation being undeserving, but does a second place finish in the marquee preps deserve more points than the secondary preps? For instance, Shagaf deserves 40 points for winning the Gotham while Trojan Nation would earn 50 for being second in the Wood due to recency, increased purse, and competition in the bigger event? Majesto\'s second place Fla Derby is worth less than Mohaymen\'s FOY? This doesn\'t seem accurate with obtaining the best horses in the most recent preps. Also, in addition to second I would propose the scoring for 3rd and 4th in the last preps would be increased. I don\'t care about Animal Kingdom\'s example but the poly prep at Turfway needs to go. I want the best 20 dirt horses in the world in the starting gate not a poly or turf horse. Don\'t give me the Churchill dirt really helps the horses with turf hooves....I want the best DIRT horses which brings me to idea number 2.
2. While not as \"defined\" as the current system, would a committee of experts provide a better Derby field than any system? Certainly there will always be horses left out on the perimeter but I\'m analogizing this to the NCAA tourney. In addition, the entire \"draw\" could be seeded by the committee 1 through 20 with Seed 1 picking their post position first. This would reward the most deserving prospect rather than sticking some deserving horses in the dreaded 1 hole. As for the committee makeup, a representative from each jurisdiction where preps are located would be a possibility. Include one trainer, one owner, one jockey, one handicapper with one year appointments (no direct connection to the entrants is a reqt.) along with the committee members from New York, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Dubai, New Mexico, etc.
EDIT: The committee idea could lend itself to a major television event announcing the horses and seeds that would eclipse the current post position draw tv event that ends up ruining certain horses chances depending on their draw. And certainly there would be some cat and mouse games with horses running styles playing a part in the strategy of the connection choosing their post.
I know I\'m tilting at windmills but the committee idea really seems to be the way to obtain the truly best dirt field. Oscar Nominated, Trojan Nation, and Lani appear to have little business in Running for the Roses besides picking up some pieces. Even CDI should want the 20 best horses possible and a points system is not the way to go. In addition, the committee can extend invitations to horses they believe are deserving and if the connections decline, they move on to the next horse to make up the best 22 horses with 2 AE until the morning of the Oaks when wagering would begin.
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff,
>
> The moment the maiden crossed the wire in second I
> told my dad \"This is what the points system gets
> Churchill, a maiden in the Derby.\"
>
If it makes you feel better, three maidens have won the Derby, including Sir Barton. If one runs in the race, the world probably won\'t tilt off its axis.
Fairmount:
Can you point to an instance in the points system era where a runner with a
decent chance of winning the Derby... a legitimate contender... was excluded?
Can you remember winners of major preps who flopped at CD?
If both California maidens end up in the Derby, it is more an indictment of
poor quality preps in NY (the weakest \"bracket\" by far, extending your NCAA
analogy) than the point system. Regarding Lani, given adequate preparation,
acclimation and training, I have no doubt he would have been a major factor in
either the Gotham or Wood, though unless his Derby preparation is exceptional
I do not see him as a Derby factor.
I do not see any need for a committee which would just add a human element to
statistics which are the true selection criteria (NCAA model). Instead of a
straightforward points system, where points are pre determined for certain
races, set up a prep performance ranking system which would take into account
numerous variables-- some measure of the adjusted speed of the race (factoring
weight, ground loss, etc), the distance of the race, graded earnings. Most
importantly, the strength or competitiveness of the race.
The true weakness of the points system is that two different preps may be
assigned the same point weighting in advance (lets say the Risen Star at FG
and the Gotham), but in retrospect one race was much stronger (field size,
quality of competition, adjusted pace and final time) than the other. A
ranking or rating system which incorporates many factors, rather than pre
assigning points, might be the best way to assure the best possible field of
3YOs is standing in the gate.
Regarding a \"major TV event\", you would be lucky to get a half hour on ESPN,
the first ten minutes of which would be pre-empted by women\'s softball.
Nuff said
http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1933/05/07/page/21/article/brokers-tip-wins-59th-kentucky-derby
Some picking on Lani as slow and consequently not belonging in the field hmm. Last year ugly scrawny Mubtiislug got a lot of ink and quite a few dead dead presidents. Good for the public and the bettors.
As for the Ca. Maiden looked to me as if it would have won the race if the race had been @ 1+1/4.
At least... Lani is a handsome beast and accustomed to racing in large fields.
Fair,
There is no perfect system or at least one that will make everyone happy. For example, the current point leader is slowwww....but has the most points.
Mike
Miff and \'bee,
I agree that no system is perfect.
But I do believe a human committee would be able to determine the best field. Put TGJB, Beyer, Crist, and jcovello on the committee. You don\'t trust them to get it right? I would trust that group over the graded earnings or points system. Songbird certainly could have \"earned\" her way into the field via the points system but I believe based on some of the factors \'bee pointed out that she would deserve an invite from a human committee. If she declined, on to the next potential entrant moving up at entry time. If she didn\'t want to face boys before the Derby but her trainer/owner wanted to at this point, I would be all for including her based on her accomplishments to this point. How many people on this board wouldn\'t want to at least see her in the field if her connections wanted to give it a sporting gesture?? Or also, how many people believe she doesn\'t deserve to be in at this point? Very few of you is my conjecture.
It is true the current points leader is considered slow and should be ranked below Nyquist by just about any standard. A committee would be able to ascertain this flaw. Nyquist would be the current 1 seed. This has nothing to do with my thoughts about his chances in the race but rather his accomplishments to this point. He should choose first for the post position. No committee would disagree on the number one ranked horse this year. Now obviously there will be many disagreements about exact rankings and in some years esp the number one seed but that would be part of the enjoyment of the process much like the tourney. So long as the top 20 are the best 20 horses that get in, that is my concern. And at the bottom there may be a few disagreements. But no way could you ever convince me that Cherry Wine should be excluded in favor of Trojan Nation at this point in time.
And without a doubt, a selection criteria for trainers to plan for and train for beginning as 2yo\'s should be set forth and followed by the committee. But giving them the discretion element to exclude a 2nd and 3rd place finisher from a weak prep is the key point to accomplishing the best field. Sophisticated systems or rankings would not be embraced by the public at large in my opinion. CDI is all about selling the Derby to the masses as it pays for their entire operation for the year from one week of racing. The points system while not my favorite does accomplish this goal but a committee reveal has also appealed to the masses as CBS has taught us with March Madness.
So as for tv, where I am really dreaming I know, I think the committee should have the field set leading into Lexington Day (but not revealed at that point) and have contingencies set up in the event that race changes the final rankings and invites. Immediately after the Lexington, the field would be revealed and ranked through say 25 or so horses on the same network that carries the Lexington. The week of the Derby the post position would be chosen by the trainers that enter their horses following the invites knowing where they stand in the rankings. That would be your usual 30 minute show that receives no ratings richiebee. But the Field Reveal after the Lexington would garner more tv fanfare in my opinion b/c the mystery of who is in and who is out would be a selling point.
As for horses that may not have run that deserved a chance: Rock Hard Ten, Bernardini, Tonalist (a stretch), Kid Cruz (??not sure??) are a few that come to mind with a few of those listed from before the graded earnings rule changed to points. And Songbird this year would be interesting to see as I said. I didn\'t \"research\" these horses listed so don\'t nail me to the cross on this reply to the bee\'s question.
Sir Barton was the first so-called Triple Crown winner winning in 1919. While I am all for tradition and paegentry and a healthy respect for the past, the previous system was already blown up and replaced with the points system rather than graded earnings. Sir Barton was literally almost 100 years ago and he did win as a maiden defeating 12 other horses including Billy Kelly. Times have changed so let\'s make the process as accurate as possible for the fans and the horses.....maidens shouldn\'t be entered in the Derby, number one on the list of criteria for the committee to put forth.
Let\'s get the best possible field of 20 is my point and I believe a committee would accomplish that better than any other system even with the human element flaws that may result.
Fairmount,
Cool post and interesting concept.
Everyone will have their own valid opinions on this.
I happen to like the current format as it rewards the horses who are a) in better form coming into the derby and b) who can run their race at longer distances.
I think the issue with a committee approach (while a very cool concept) is that it would be nearly impossible to take the human connection element out of the decision. The game is too small and everyone knows everyone else and has connections to certain people.
For example, JB is very close with the Winstar guys, how much pressure would he be under to add a Winstar horse to the final list that might be on the bubble? One of my good friends and a guy I own two horses with owns interests in Exaggerator and My Man Sam. There would be no way I would ever leave his two horses off the list. It would be tough to find any impartial committee members given how close everyone\'s ties are in the game.
Maybe something like what the Breeders Cup does could work where the top 10 or the top 15 slots are determined by points and/or Win and You\'re In races and the rest of the slots are determined by a committee. But even then, when you are dealing with only rapidly developing spring 3 year olds, many of the horses that would be on the bubble on that list have real chances to win the race. My Man Sam would be a bubble horse in that construct and I don\'t think there\'s a person on this board that doesn\'t think he has a chance on May 7th (I\'m assuming he paired or moved slightly forward with his fig on Sat).
Regardless of where one comes out on the selection criteria, I was having a good discussion with some sharp handicappers yesterday who were focused on how the selection criteria has made the race more formful (sp?) the last few years.
Without as many speed balls in the race who have no chance of getting the distance (and yes I ran one of those myself a few years ago and it was the best non-family related experience of my life and I would do it again in a heartbeat), the race is simply more likely to produce a winner that is one of the best horses as opposed to one that takes advantage of the chaos that can ensue when a bunch of horses that don\'t belong in a race are in a race.
Someone made an astute comment on the board yesterday that the best figure doesn\'t always win the race when there is a pace meltdown and we can extend that to any scenario where we introduce weaker horses or horses in poor form into the race.
Between likely more reasonable pace scenarios created by the selection criteria and the very transparent coverage from the folks at DRF and other outlets enhanced by Twitter, etc where everyone who wants to know how the horses are training into the race can get informed opinions, you are less likely to have the kind of price horses winning than you have historically.
Doesn\'t mean the favorite is going to win every year but it does mean that we will all know on the morning of May 7th if that bo in the stretch of the Florida Derby was Nyquist being green, tired from only one 7f prep into the race or if he is hurt. Even 10 years ago, the only people who would have that information had to be pretty plugged in. Not the case anymore.
Similarly, everyone will know thanks to DRF and Twitter, etc. if Destin skipped the final prep in which he would have been a heavy fav in a $1m race because of sheet theory or because he has physical issues.
BTW, I believe those are the two most important questions to answer for this years Derby at this particular point but obviously other questions will emerge over the next 3 weeks.
Good stuff. Gonna be fun.
Graded stakes earnings in route races only..
Also think Nyquist bo may had to do something with Mario shifting to look over his shoulder.
Still came home under 13 seconds the last 1/8th mile
jcovello wrote: \"Regardless of where one comes out on the selection criteria, I was having a good discussion with some sharp handicappers yesterday who were focused on how the selection criteria has made the race more formful (sp?) the last few years.\"
______________________________
The points system started with the 2013 edition. From 1986 to 2012, graded earnings were the determining factor for the field.
Since 2013, the ordinal betting rank of the top 5 finishers are as follows:
2013: 1st-16th-2nd-5th-7th (Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion, Mylute)
2014: 1st-17th-3rd-2nd-7th (Chrome, Commanding Curve, Danza, Wicked Strong, Samraat)
2015: 1st-4th-2nd-5th-9th (AP, Firing Line, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon)
EDIT: Besides the Dallas Stewart horses, it has been incredibly formful during the points era as compared to the betting public\'s handicapping in the win pool. For a handicapper who singled a Dallas Stewart horse in a pick 6, the race could have been slightly more formful in \'14 as compared to his handicapping......
And my opinion is that IF Nyquist is sound (which the daily track appearances will tell us), the favorite will win again this year in part because the pace isn\'t as fast as it would have been in years where speedballs that can\'t route could get into the race
I think that\'s a very big IF though.
Hi Jim,
Dosage guys still around but not like in the old days. With a dosage of 7, they are licking there chops to toss Nyquist, obviously the one to beat on paper.
Anyone have the highest dosage derby winner say last 15 years.
Mike
Fu Peg 3.67
Giacomo 4.33
Mine That Bird 5.40
Am. Pharoah 4.33
Strike The Gold in 1991 the highest at 9.00
Went to Steve Roman\'s site and got quite different numbers. Sometimes they update the numbers . Anyway from Steve Roman\'s site.
Back as far as 2000.
American Pharoah, Giacomo and Mine that Bird were all listed at 4.33 for DI.
Strike the Gold was revised down to a DI of 2.60. Down from over 4.00 initially.
Giacomo, American Pharoah and Mine that Bird are three Derby winners to have won the race with a DI above 4.00 since 1929. There have been 6 to win with a DI over 4 since 1929.
and outwork 11.0
Rich,
Uncle Mo\'s getting hammered in the dosage formula.
Mike
I haven\'t paid attention to dosage for quite a while, but as I understand the dosage formula, it is calculated based on the chefs-de-race in a horse\'s pedigree. I think Alydar had not yet qualified as a chef-de-race (not enough offspring had run?) when Strike the Gold ran. When Alydar was figured in, Strike the Gold\'s dosage dropped. I\'m guessing the Uncle Mo\'s are in a similar boat. So far, the offspring of Uncle Mo (e.g., Nyquist, Outwork, Laoban, Uncle Lino) have not seemed to underperform as distances have gotten longer.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_dosage.htm
That will be a key for future dosage -- the performances of the offspring. Uncle Mo only raced 8 times but was pretty impressive. He won 5 times including the BC Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles -- his longest race win. He ran third in the Wood at 1 1/8, missed the Derby and ran 10th in the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles. He had a rare liver disease that compromised most of his third year of racing probably leading to the poorer performances. Nyquest\'s dam sire is Forestry a very good sprinter.
Can you throw out all of this \"shorter distance\" stuff like with Pharaoh and some of the others -- that obviously didn\'t work? That is the question and important one since Nyquest will be a hot favorite. He was lugging out at the end of the Wood. Was he getting tired or just shifted because the jockey was looking behind? His last eighth was pretty fast.
Strike; he ran in the Fl Derby.
I am saying his bo was because the jock looked over his shoulder.
Pay attention to work out reports but that is my best educated guess.
Even though he bo and was on the wrong lead he still came home under 13 seconds for the last 1/8th.
I have watched all his races he has never bo before including the BCJ.
That to me is Nyquist key race absolute horrible trip and won,to take it further Swipe still did not pass him on the gallop out.
Funny thing is, if he would of lost the BCJ, you would of heard about all the misfortune he had in the race.
Instead we hear Dosage index,can he get the distance, who has he beet since Mohay thru in a clunker.
I would not be surprised to get 4-1 on him derby day..
Also lets see what happens Saturday
I\'m not sure how to take the \"under-perform\" issue. Laoban was the only speed to hang in at the end, but he was never going to win that race. It was a good effort, but we\'ve seen his limit - a mile and a 1/16.
Uncle Lino also a good effort, but never a threat to the winner. Should probably stick to 1 1/16 and shorter.
Outwork held on well, but still, was pushed by a bomber maiden. The slowest Wood ever. There weren\'t any Destins or Brodys in there. Again, a nice horse, but sure doesn\'t seem like a classic distance horse.
All three very nice runners.
But that leaves Nyquist . . . .
Johnny,
It appears you misread my post. I know what race Nyquest ran in. My Wood comment was about his sire -- Uncle Mo -- who went off at 1-10 in the Wood.
\"He was lugging out at the end of the Wood. Was he getting tired or just shifted because the jockey was looking behind? His last eighth was pretty fast\"
Reads as though you are talking about Nyquist..
Ill stick with the jock shift caused the bo..
What I meant by \"underperform\" is that their TG figures deteriorate as their races get longer. I\'m just guessing at figures for the last two weekends (and I\'m no TGJB), but I thought all of the horses I mentioned probably roughly \"paired\" their tops when stretched out to 9 furlongs (often despite pressing or setting hot paces).
That said, 9 furlongs are not 10, and the dam side is relevant too.
The magic number to get in is on the rise, anything in the 20\'s used to be good enough.If you toss the poly and Dubai points out it\'s still a 30 something target.
Trainers who have been trending to only 2 derby preps had better have their horses primed for a top effort, there is no room for a stumble. For Kool Aide drinkers this could create an interesting dilemma? The TAP approach with Destin will be watched closely, what to do with the big top too early? IMHO I simply can\'t see a lightly raced 3 yr old giving a peak performance at 10f off 8 weeks on the bench.
We will see.
My prediction is you will see more trainers targeting 3 preps again in a more old school approach to bring them along building to the 1st Saturday in May.Brody\'s Cause is a perfect example this year. A BIG X in Tampa forced him to have to win or be 2nd in the Bluegrass to get in. Cherry Wine and My Man Sam switch who\'s in and who is out by a head.
It should be a very interesting next 3 weeks with some nice looking forward moving patterns of horses who have yet to run fast?
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-point-standings
Good luck,
Frank D.