Kent might be better than Bejarano these days. Curlin sire effect took a few months to show up (Curlin seemed to really mature in the middle of the third year), but this guy will make noise next month.
Hats off to Desormeaux for a great ride.
Leamas
Bejarano couldn\'t shine Kent\'s boots EVER!!!
Really? RB is a solid jock but your comparing him to one of the top 10 all time that ever sat on a horse and that\'s drunk or sober. 7 time leading riding in Cali in the days when the best jock colony in the history of the sport was on the SoCal circuit. There were many races over a period of several years where the entire field of jocks now reside on Union Ave in Saratoga Springs.
I\'ll agree that team Desormeaux has indeed a noise maker in 4 weeks.
Good luck,
Frank D,
Pace was fast but that was a wicked sustained run by Exaggerator/Desormeaux.Wet track specialist? if not, very dangerous.
Easily best of the preps visually and fig wise.
Time stacks up very well against the super horse earlier - both eased under the wire. It is a bit concerning that this horse\'s best running appears to be in the slop - but good God that was a strong move.
Tampa Derby has a claim for best prep, since the also-rans in there took the Wood and Bluegrass.
Speaking of Wood, don\'t envy figure makers on that one. Lewis Bay is a nice grade 2 filly, but she\'d be the 5th choice in the Oaks - and she went faster than the Wood winner. Bay Shore also went faster than the Carter - so maybe the track was just slowing down.
Gave wicked sustained run on fast track in San Felipe too, just mistimed > flattened out.
I\'m not so sure that the early attempt at a 5/8 sustained run wasn\'t a training exercise off a 7f sprint comeback? You\'re talking about a couple of real sharpies here. It certainly looks like this one has one hell of a foundation as well as a very nice looking sheet heading to Louisville.
You might have a few point jump here to deal with.
On top of that the wet track races are significantly faster(TG #\'s) than fast track efforts going back to last year.
Two year old top and pair 5 points better on mud than fast dirt.
If the SA Derby comes back as Mike suggests than a 3pt top in the slop.
There\'s a lot to like with this horse after yesterday but also some questions as well regarding the Derby for me.
Does he get the same hot pace to run at now that they\'ve turned him into more of a closer?
Does he bounce off a few point top?
Can he run as well if the track isn\'t wet Derby Day?
Ill admit that Smith (with help from pressure by #10) set a ridiculous early pace for 9 furlongs--even for slop. They went 22.15 and then .45+ Once I saw those times, I knew the leaders were toast. It also visually flattered the run by Exaggerator.
And as we have seen, a one run strategy is dangerous in the Derby if you start too soon; then you have traffic issues, too.
I am counting on this horse adding a little more muscle and then he will need special ride in May. I am not impressed by the Vindication influence on the bottom; not sure that helps the 10 furlong effort.
He will be in my Exactas and Tris. Nice brother story with trainer/jockey story, too.
Leamas
I\'m not sure how much it flattered the effort visually. Sure, Danzing Candy hit a wall, but Mor Spirit did not attend the pace, and from the 6f call to the mile call, Exaggerator put twelve lengths on that one - 12.
You want to see an example of how sharp? Watch the replay of Decked Out\'s last race in the China Doll before winning yesterday. They never once asked her to run and she could have won anytime. But that did set her up perfectly for a big effort yesterday and she won for fun.
She was bet early, and steadily too.
It looks like they wanted her to run, but she didn\'t have the room. Squeezed through a hole late and got third. Don\'t think they put her in that one just for an education.
MJ,
As I\'m sure you know well team D. likes to bet a dollar or two. When they left town last August after bringing Exaggerator here for the Saratoga Special they had one more suitcase than they came with.
I don\'t see it that way. She drifted out on first turn, was beginning to make a move up on backstretch when the jock stands up as if she\'s steadying. She then shifts in for the stretch run with the jock half standing in the chill position almost all the way down the lane. There is a hole there, but she isnt asked. And then she\'s still not asked. But she goes through it on her own. And then she still wasn\'t asked...
Finally, about 10 yards from the finish the jock bears down and shakes his hands and she gallops by them all, only after the wire.
Look over the pp for that field in the stakes race yesterday. Look at the ML, and look at the final odds. That wasnt just me betting her.
The TVG guys gave her out, including showing the replay - (which is why I took a second look, I\'m embarrassed to say, and bet her as well). Don\'t know how much that moves the line, but if they can figure it out others can.
You guys know this business better than I, but she was 17-1 going into the China Doll, and 3-1 yesterday. Seems like if they were setting up a big score, they missed their window. Especially give that the pool totals were higher for the China Doll than the Providencia.
The fact that she was 17-1 one race ago but 3-1 yesterday against more or less the same field sort of backs up my point that the stable was betting this one yesterday and not last month. But I didn\'t realize the TVG guys gave her out too, so thanks for that. Did they point out what I am saying?
If they just said she lacked room they missed a lot, or left it out on purpose.
But make note, those connections know how to get a horse ready for a specific race, and then bet it too. I started watching after Texas Red won the BC Juv (go back and watch the replays of his earlier races by the way). And as Frank said, there have been others since. They probably have the 2nd or 3rd betting choice in this year\'s KY Derby.
so they knew it was going to rain?
WTF does knowing if it was going to rain have to do with anything?
The horse paired 2\'s breaking through his 2 year old wet track tops in his first 2 starts of the year. The horse had every right to move forward and his 2\'s are just as fast as Nyquist\'s sheet. He is a Curlin who improve 5 points from 2-3 and get better as they go along.
This wasn\'t a 40/1 shot coming from obscurity he is a well thought of graded stakes winner who was bet in his previous efforts.
They showed replays of her last two, and it may be the former I was thinking of as far as lacking space. I think they actually said something like:
\"The jock is not asking her to run at all. He doesn\'t even set her down until right at the wire, and then she goes right by them\".
Okay, I\'ll bite. What the hell was the HOF rider doing whipping the crap out of the horse when he was way in front in the stretch (after he had PASSED the whole field, so he didn\'t have to worry about someone closing on him)?
Good news is, he doesn\'t have any big races coming up...
Plausible reason for extra whips in the lane. Ensuring he goes for a new top. Don\'t have stats in front of me, but fairly certain more pairs run than new tops in the derby.
yeah but a possible 3 point top coupled with the fact that he loved that track could be problematic assuming someone else has a decent pattern.
No great secret This horse loves the off going. One could reasonably interpret his fig was aided by the slop. One can also assume via the visual the run was one of a conditioned horse that most likely would have won the race on any surface this day. We saw the same run in the San Felipe it just started a little earlier and could not be sustained.
If the fig came up a 1 or a 1/2 you would be looking at one of the best derby sheets you ever saw?
Agreed Frank. He was fast at 2 and is a Curlin. Lots of sentiment that he is a better 1 turn horse, probably based on Watchmaker\'s drf comments. I dunno if i agree with those or not, to be honest. My gut tells me he may be right. But given the connections this one is a bit of an enigma to me, which is why i posted the stuff i did about the other runner. Assuming no hiccups in his training from here on out, at this point i can only say:
I do think he likes the slop.
I do think he will be one of the favorites in the KY Derby.
I do think the SA Derby race shape and surfaced greatly favored him and his race looked better than it was.
And I do think if TGJB has his SA derby as a relatively small forward move to a new top his sheet will look pretty nice.
One more thing. That Tampa track is a tricky track. Lots of horses don\'t ship in there and run very well for whatever reason. So curious how people will evaluate Brody\'s Cause sheet.
the number is out and your right, you really can\'t get a better sheet than that