As I begin to get up to speed on this weekends Wood Memorial, hoping it is the ROTW, I glance at the Rags site and find a couple who think Matt King Cole is a good bet @ 3/1. Lady Sheila Racing, Linda Rice & Jose Ortiz not withstanding apparently this colt ran a number @ 2 and then won an allowance race on Gotham Day.
Still foolish enough to think a number does not tell the whole story I watched a replay of MKC\'s allowance race and I would pick the second place finisher from that race My Man Sam in a rematch @ 1+1/8 miles. The winner after running a strong six furlongs just kept shortening stride to my eye.
Then I considered the pace competition and realize that for MKC to win in the same fashion as his last he will probably have to eyeball Outwork for a mile or so and outfinish him. Outwork need some more Derby points call me chauvinistic, I prefer his connections to MKC\'s. In any event I think they beat each other and the winner comes from off the pace.
Then I look for oddities and Desormeaux shipping in with Dalmore fits the bill. I watched the replay of his last race and was impressed and even more impressed when I realized that the good looking colt he beat (Magical Mystery) was a first time out Baffert Trainee. Note - Dalmore is not TC nominated. The brothers D have shipped to NY occasionally with mixed results and they seem a couple of optimists.
I have not looked at the sheets so I\'m flying somewhat blind. I won\'t leave Shagaf off my tickets. The ship from the west coast is intriguing and double edged @ some attractive odds.
Trying to recall front running winners of this classic prep. Congaree?, Bellamy Road and Veranzano come to mind. Some very competent and fast horses. What a great history. Lady Sheila Racing does not seem valuable @ 3/1. Previously I thought Shadwell would be part of the Kentucky Derby story, assuming Mohaymen, now I still do.
I am excited about this race and believe the weather will only enhance the chances of the fittest horse I wish I knew which one that is?
I will be watching how the track plays early. Matt King Coal is definitely on the short list. Worth remembering that MKC was coming off a long layoff, so no surprise to be a bit short - and he still won. He put in a very good work (maybe too good) in his last. 1:25 and 1/5 will win a decent allowance at 7f on the inner tube.
Will also play Adventist. Thought his last was almost as good as Shagaf - wider for longer. Lost some momentum weaving in the stretch. Needs to rid himself of the green-ness but will be a much bigger price.