GP 60K MSW @ 1 mile on dirt - Florida Derby Day.
The #7 I\'m Amazing catches my eye. Strong trainer win % in MSW & 1st up. Solid Work tab. Auction price of $1.6M. So what I\'m wondering is what logic to use in estimating the probability of winning.
A. Should one consider the horses chances only in the context of the trainer. In which case the fair odds are probably closer to 2/1. i.e., how many $1.6 horses does Nicks get each year. Surely he spots his first time starters to win and a $60K MSW vs a lesser amount could suggest plenty of confidence. Sure, the purchase price guarantees nothing, yet.
B. Alternatively, Should one consider the horses chances as a function of other capable appearing contenders. i.e. 1,2,3,6,8,10,11. Suggesting his fair price s/b more in the range of say 7/1. The m/l lists him @ 5/1 probably using method B and dumping a couple of those I listed as contenders.
C. Forget about it because of the jockey or expect a minor placing at best.
Tavasco,
Any maiden heat is a crap shoot and as we know purchase price and running especially first out are oil and water!
As for reason C- you have a 12% trainer & 9% jock who in over a 200 horse sample strike at 21% together. They have been a profitable combo at this meet and IMHO
SR Gaffalione has a future.
Good luck,
Frank D.