How much do you attribute their looks to thier performance in that race?
Their appearance tells you everything if you know what to look for. If not, you probably do your handicapping and bankroll more harm than good. But, you also have to know the individual horse so you\'d know if anything looked amiss or great. There are probably books or DVDs that educate on this matter. Better still to find some old-timer to educated you. Very few analysts today know much about what they\'re seeing, but in NYRA, Maggie Wolfendale, for example, is quite good, and lately Richard Migliore is doing some last minute observations, which I really enjoy. You could learn a lot from listening to them. A real expert, and like I say there are few left today would only need a post parade, warm-up and the distance, surface and conditions of the race to handicap with just a visual observation. It\'s a lost art, I think.
Dana666 Wrote:
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> Their appearance tells you everything if you know
> what to look for. If not, you probably do your
> handicapping and bankroll more harm than good.
> But, you also have to know the individual horse so
> you\'d know if anything looked amiss or great.
> There are probably books or DVDs that educate on
> this matter. Better still to find some old-timer
> to educated you. Very few analysts today know much
> about what they\'re seeing, but in NYRA, Maggie
> Wolfendale, for example, is quite good, and lately
> Richard Migliore is doing some last minute
> observations, which I really enjoy. You could
> learn a lot from listening to them. A real expert,
> and like I say there are few left today would only
> need a post parade, warm-up and the distance,
> surface and conditions of the race to handicap
> with just a visual observation. It\'s a lost art, I
> think.
I don\'t know if he is still around -- Joe Takach was at one time a leading proponent of the body language of a horse in handicapping. I used to see him and his crew frequently at the Hollywood Park paddock before races. He wrote a number of books on the subject. I did not know him.
Frank(Pancho) Martin, famous NY Trainer,would eyeball the horses in the walking ring and comment on how he thought they would run,often on the money,claimed many that way.He was very attuned to the manner in which they walked and carried their head.He would also predict where he observed a horse was likely to go bad,hock,stifle,tendon etc.
Believe some have very good feel for visual observation overall.As noted,NYRA Maggie has been very good.
Martin, Campo, they spent a lot of time in the paddock. Not sure if current \'crop\' are doing the same.
They both spent a lot of time in the paddock with their keen eyes in the pre lasix and Oscar Barrera era in NY. The view was quite a bit clearer in those days.
Take away meds,supplements and magic from today\'s \"crop\" and you\'ll be left with a handful of true horsemen.
Frank D.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> They both spent a lot of time in the paddock with
> their keen eyes in the pre lasix and Oscar Barrera
> era in NY. The view was quite a bit clearer in
> those days.
>
> Take away meds,supplements and magic from today\'s
> \"crop\" and you\'ll be left with a handful of true
> horsemen.
>
> Frank D.
Very true Frank. Most of the true horsemen can be found in the winner\'s circle after graded events run on the turf.
Good luck,
Joe B.
Google Joe Takach or go to icapper.com or joe-takach.com for volumes of useful free data on this subject. Good luck.
Strike Wrote:
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> Dana666 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Their appearance tells you everything if you
> know
> > what to look for. If not, you probably do your
> > handicapping and bankroll more harm than good.
> > But, you also have to know the individual horse
> so
> > you\'d know if anything looked amiss or great.
> > There are probably books or DVDs that educate
> on
> > this matter. Better still to find some
> old-timer
> > to educated you. Very few analysts today know
> much
> > about what they\'re seeing, but in NYRA, Maggie
> > Wolfendale, for example, is quite good, and
> lately
> > Richard Migliore is doing some last minute
> > observations, which I really enjoy. You could
> > learn a lot from listening to them. A real
> expert,
> > and like I say there are few left today would
> only
> > need a post parade, warm-up and the distance,
> > surface and conditions of the race to handicap
> > with just a visual observation. It\'s a lost art,
> I
> > think.
>
>
> I don\'t know if he is still around -- Joe Takach
> was at one time a leading proponent of the body
> language of a horse in handicapping. I used to see
> him and his crew frequently at the Hollywood Park
> paddock before races. He wrote a number of books
> on the subject. I did not know him.
Was acquainted with him, earlier, but uncertain of his current whereabouts. Would be interested in update. Have always been more accurate throwing out horses whose looks I don\'t like, rather than going with those I like the looks of, a good deal. I leave it to Maggie, on that end.
Frank, I definitely agree that there will be few true horseman \"med free\" if we ever, doubt it, get there. There are super trainers, TAP, DJN, BBT, Asmussen and several more that have or should have done time in the penalty box. I think they are all true horseman though to get where they are, and also get the cream of the crop to work with. Chad, Mott, HGM, Kieran, and Frankel are guys that never had any or many violations, also great horseman. They might be the ones hurt the most by the supers that push the envelope and have the Repoles, Stonestreet, Coolmore, Kaleem Shah, Reddhams, Winstar and the like. And then you have Preciado, Cibelli, Navarro, Dimato, and friends. TOUGH GAME.
Takach was at Phila Park for a long time before going to California.
I hung out on the rail by the paddock/walking ring every Saturday and Sunday there with some friends and a few other guys including Takach.
He was a tight spring but incredibly disciplined with his betting at the time.
There were days where he didn\'t make a wager.Besides the physicality stuff he was also making his own #\'s.
I picked up on some of the basics but the main thing he got me into was watching warm ups.This was before all of the books,articles and videos.
from a thorograph perspective, i feel appearance can be the crucial factor in deciding if the horse is going to bounce, move forward, etc....i learned everything from reading joe takach on the internet...you should try it..
a few weeks ago at gp, pletcher had a horse that looked unbeatable on thoro power and was recommened on the analysis....i saw him in the post parade and he stood out to me as the worst looking horse....i dropped him from the tri\'s and was rewarded...
a more famous instance for myself was animal kingdom winning the derby...he looked awesome in the post parade and i changed my plays and keyed him....nehro was touted as being awful all week, however, i thought he looked good too, and i nailed the tri and super because of body language....and that info is all free...
All well and good, but if you listen carefully to the nyra analysts every race, there are PLENTY of \'appearance\' losers mixed in with the occasional winner. Losers count.
Getting the mix of racing talent and todays looks just right for betting purposes is not as easy as some make it out to be.
took a newbie to the track a few years ago...they asked why the horses were warming up with ponies tied to them....i said the euros, japs, aussies don\'t do that...
i then asked him if mariano rivera came out to the mound for the 9th inning in game 7 of the world series and as he was warming up derek jeter tied a lasso to his neck, what would he do....he said he would punch jeter in the face....and then a few people turned to me and said i never thought of it that way...
the euros get it...these are living breathing things...the need to be warmed up properly..
when edgar prado moved to nyra, he always warmed up his horses without a pony...hit some crazy longshots with him 15 years ago...
This varies widely by horse, no? Some horses you see warming up in a near sprint all by themselves. I had thought it had to do with horse temperament, etc.
i have mucho respecto for overseas racing....you never see a pony with a horse there..if there is, then that horse must be a problem....
if you remember the life at ten fiasco at the breeders cup, jerry bailey pointed out the horse looked horrendous as soon as he hit the track...
i was at saratoga when bailey warmed up a zito horse was scratched because bailey said he didn\'t feel right, and he took a lot of heat from zito for it....
i was at gulfstream when prado was riding in a 6k claimer...he took off from the pony and warmed up the horse when on the backside the horse broke down...
the horse was a speed horse....what if prado was thrown from that horse while on the lead during the race....
these are basic safeguards for horse and jockey....
i was at aqueduct when this slow old beaten down horse named aegeon was racing and looked like secretariat in the paddock....rudy rod was the new trainer and the horse galloped to his looks...it was rudy\'s first win as a trainer....who knew...i\'m just sayin how to use physical handicapping to your advantage....
I was at Hollypark once when Chris McCarron scratched a Whittingham horse during warmups out of a 4-horse graded stake. Charlie wasn\'t too happy about it. I believe next out the horse won another graded stake with a new rider.
As a young man many years ago I took a young lady who happened to be a mule trainer to Long Acres racetrack. After several races where she expressed no opinion she came back to our seats before the feature race. Small stakes 6 horses where after studying I could only eliminate 1 horse. She said bet all I had on the horse I eliminated. It aired at long odds. Needless to say we had a wonderful night. See C. McCarron/B.Ledbetter video on Body language of horses. Available on Amazon.
wrongway -- I see I\'m not the only one with a story like that.
In my senior year in high school, I took a girl on our first date to Green Mountain Racetrack. They had converted from horses to dogs by that time, and I had written a program for my computer class that I used to automate my handicapping, and the place was my home away from home in those days.
Anyway, my date didn\'t know a thing about dog racing. Six races into the card she hadn\'t said a single word about any dog in any race, then all of a sudden she leans over and points out a dog to me called Texas Cowboy in the program and says, \"I like that one.\"
Now normally, for obvious reasons, I would\'ve put a win bet on the thing even if I didn\'t like it, just in case. But this dog had never been ahead of a single dog at any point of any race in any of his PP\'s. 99-1 on the board.
You know the rest. The dog breaks like a shot out of the box, opens up five in the blink of an eye, airs by ten lengths and pays $270 to win.
Incredibly, she still went to the senior prom with me after that.
\"She looked great in the new leash I bought\".
Sorry. Couldn\'t resist the set up.
hopefully you had better luck on prom night