Nice big field in the Rebel Stakes on Saturday.
With horses like Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews drawing wide, I think that this race definitely is interesting.
Discreetness at the 12/1 ML looks very good. His figs are comparable and he is much longer. Drawing the four hole is a good post. All of the horses with similar figs are 7/2 or lower on the ML.
Doubt I play the Rebel as I think this is a real interesting field and race for Derby Contenders to sort themselves out.
But the one you mentioned is interesting. Spoke with Fires after the Ky Jockey Club race won by Airoforce. I asked him why Discreetness scratched that day and he said it was simple, he thought the field was too tough. He told me to bet him in the Springboard Mile where he won a photo that I still think he lost to SBN. Ran great again at Oaklawn and then last time had no shot with the post.
Fires didn\'t even think this was his best Derby contender. He had a horse lose to Airoforce first out that he was very high on but I don\'t think he has returned anywhere since the first of the year.
Can\'t wait to see this race Saturday.
Looks like the two Asmussen horses woke up once they got away from the Fairgrounds.
I don\'t know about any of these being major factors in May but Madtap on short rest is the one I\'m most interested in.
Tough to bet him given the entry and the quick turnaround but if he continues to improve in the Rebel he\'s at least in the conversation.
Discreetness looks good on paper but he\'s giving 5 to 7 lbs to some of these and it\'s anybody\'s guess if Court will get over to the rail and save ground on both turns.
American Dubai looks like the one who could move forward but the trainer #\'s aren\'t very good.
Ralis could be first or last.
Cupid figures to improve given the works,timing and Baffert but in a big field like this he could find lots of trouble as the favorite.
This one is a real puzzle.
Memory doesn\'t all serve me well, but Asmussen\'s entry reminds me a bit of Nehro, who was underwhelming in several starts before waking up at Oaklawn and becoming a factor on the Derby trail and the Derby itself. Bears watching.
That was before Joe Drape discovered the hole in his foot.
\'His\' being Nehro, not Drape...
Nice.
Speaking of Drape, whats the under and over on a negative racing article being published in the NY Times before the derby.
Bombs away with #6 Siding Spring. Ran OK #s as 2yo, needed last where he showed too much early speed, decent post, in light at 115.
Big, I like your insights. Rarely, but occasionally, I opt for keeping it simple;
2015 1st Bob Baffert American Pharoah (Consensus Favorite)
2014 1st Bob Baffert Hoppertunity (Dubious but improving)
2013 3rd Bob Baffert Den\'s Legacy (14/1 - overlooked by bettors)
.........5th Bob Baffert Super Ninety Nine (flopped as favorite)
2012 1st Bob Baffert Secret Circle (even money favorite)
2011 1st Bob Baffert The Factor (was a ? to get the distance)
2010 1st Bob Baffert Lookin At Lucky (Highly Rated)
We don\'t know yet how good Cupid is. We do know he was attractive enough to bring $900K @ auction by arguably the best scouting combine in North America. His last may have been vs maidens and he sure lost a lot of ground but doesn\'t he have the look of an improving colt that is still learning. The hood suggests the same. Another, like Mor Spirit, without a burst, but I have to believe Mr Baffert is in it to win it. My confidence in BB trumps my other considerations.
Respect Baffert as much as anyone. He doesn\'t ship for fun and Cupid has been working great. But there\'s no way I\'m taking 7/2 on a horse that just broke his maiden on try 3 (against a very suspect group), and now faces 13 horses including stakes winners over this strip. Would rather take stabs with Discreetness or Cherry Wine at 12-1.
All of which practically guarantees Cupid the win.
If you could actually get 7/2 on Cupid, I would take a stab. He probably goes much lower than that though. I\'m going to key the Asmussen entry. Hopefully get 5/1 or better. I\'ll key them over the 4,5,10. Good luck!
Patrick
I agree. Taking a stand against Cupid is probably guaranteeing that he runs away with this. You cannot argue with what Baffert has accomplished in this race but that will also guarantee that Cupid will get bet down and he is one of the slower in the field. He has to make a big jump up and I cannot take short odds if that needs to happen. Saying that, I am not writing him off for the derby. If he moves up a couple of points here(not a big move) and a couple in the Arkansas Derby, I would love his pattern.
I think that this has been one of the best prep races on the trail this year. Big field with several that you can make a case for.
I think that the fav\'s have warts. Some are slow on figure, some drew outside, some coming back on short rest off a big top, or already big development from 2yo top. Out of that group(Asmussen entry, Cupid, Whitmore, Suddenbreakingnews) I think that I like Whitmore the most. Hate the post but he was pretty fast as a 2yo, paired it, and then went forward.
Lastly, what do individuals think of Ralis. Not crazy with how he ran at two and just starting now at three makes me wonder about the fitness coming into this. However, trainer/jockey combo gets my attention.
I am as guilty as anybody looking for a bomber to play and there is a horse in the Rebel that intrigues me a bit.
Cutacorner has a win over this surface at this distance. Prior to his last trip he had a nice forward looking pattern. Then in his last out he gets pinched and is pulled up.. Would he of moved forward who knows. Needless to say he is a fresh horse coming in and at 117 lbs with a new jock. Being in the 9 hole concern about ground loss but at 30-1 ML with an excuse last out I may just take a shot.
Good Luck today
Taking my shot with American Dubai. He was the only horse to be up on the fast pace in the Southwest and still be around at the wire. A little improve and a more patient ride and maybe I catch big balloons....Ken
JEB Wrote:
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> Lastly, what do individuals think of Ralis. Not
> crazy with how he ran at two and just starting now
> at three makes me wonder about the fitness coming
> into this. However, trainer/jockey combo gets my
> attention.
This individual thinks Ralis has a fascinating TG page. On closing weekend at
the Spa he humbled a weak field in the Hopeful. His TG # that day, in early
September of his 2YO campaign, was faster than anyone in the Rebel save one
has heretofore run.
Enigmatically, in his six 2YO races away from Saratoga, Ralis managed nothing
better than a TG 11 (sorry for the data leak).
As I semi- facetiously told Frank \"Frankie Rainbow\" D, I hope this one turns
up at the Travers with some dirty form.
I\'m groping here but ended up on Ralis.
You\'d think the connections send from the rail(after the Donworth debacle).
If Siding Spring and American Dubai are content to stalk today the pace could be moderate.Both connections talked about getting more patient rides after the Southwest.
So maybe Ralis clears and hangs on?
I\'ll take that scenario!
Note to Sr Bee - the rainbow ended very early today for MOI.
Shopping at Woolworth\'s in the Rebel:
5 & 10
......Baffert tough ombré!...SBN ugly trip.
Mike
Baffert the best, especially with 3 year olds. Can\'t argue that.
A couple things on the race
1. The winner very hard to play at 5/2. Those that had him didn\'t get paid right for a maiden breaker that broke his maiden against an awful bunch to boot.
2. That said, bred to be any kind.
3. Not sure I am going to be as forgiving as you for SBN. Bad trip for sure, but didn\'t see run when he was clear.
4. He doesn\'t get out of the gate well. Two races in a row. Desth in a big field if Baffert doesn\'t get it corrected.
5. I think he ran very well. The figure he gets on TG likely won\'t reflect how well as he was 1w/1w. But he broke several lengths slow rushed up into a quick first quarter. Set a pace faster than older horses ran an hour earlier are rhe same distance. Green as hell at the top of the stretch, looked done, the. Dug in and was pulling away again late. Impressive.
6. Final time a bit faster than older handicap horses ran at the same distance although that field had question marks, including the winner, although thr winner certainly had back figures and got a 5 or 6 wide trip around the second turn (also lost ground into first turn without needing to - bravo. Ugh
I think this horse can run and bears close watching.
Rob
Interesting race for Cupid indeed. Depending how TG sees ground loss for others, he may only get the 6th best figure in the race, but he is the only colt who was in the first half of the field at the first call and still in the first half at the end.
Carrying 122, I would not be surprised if SBN roughly paired his TG fig from the Southwest.
Rob,
Baffert\'s record with maiden breakers winning stake routes next out is off the charts.
Cupid ran a Beyer of 95 or like TG 3, lack of scale weight/ground loss noted. Race on the track better than the number for all the reasons you correctly noted esp poor break, rush to lead,cutting a fast pace,poor cornering/green but very game late when hooked.Very nice race, could be a major derby threat with a forward move and maturation.
SBN lost momentum when kinda steadied back to last approaching the far turn, take a close look. Think the race was solid and the 5 top finishers are actually ok for this year.
Cupid ran the fastest of the 1 1/16th routes at OP but will not get the best TG figs due to weight and ground adjustments vs the other races.Cupids pace adjusted figure makes him fastest of all routes at OP yesterday, to look at it thru another methodology.
Mike
I don\'t know what the jock on SBN was thinking he made a early move to separate from the other closers got in the clear was passed up and rode right up on the horse in front of him... Do not like a horse that has to go 6/7w every time. What does that say come Derby day? Orb..
Cupid add 11 lbs and another 3/16 of a mile who knows..
Let\'s see what happens FL Derby,is a match race what you want as your final Derby prep?
Mike,
When it comes to Baffert with 3 yr olds, believe your eyes first and your methodology de jour 2nd. Lucky, Bode, AP and now this one all \"not ready or not enough foundation\" per traditional ways.
A good NCAA analogy John Wooden\'s UCLA players to a man always said the games were a piece of cake compared to his practices. They were always prepared, any situation that could possibly come up in a game had already been rehearsed in practice and they were better conditioned than their opposition.
Baffert drills his 2 and 3 yr olds hard in blistering workouts and they are always race ready. An amazing feat year after year he has them ready while the competition drops like flies. Love him, hate him or indifferent you have to have the utmost respect for him.
Frank D.
Frank,
Agree.Some observers speak to his unorthodox training methods, one observer calling him a magic man....hmmm.For the record,Mor Spirit was more highly thought of than Cupid before yesterday.Interesting for Baffert trainees, neither one have the clockers very impressed in the am, comparative to usual Baffert rockets.
So now we have another Tapit offspring in the conversation. What\'s their record at 10f? Is Mohaymen cheating his way to Derby and if so, can he get away with it vs Nyquist?
Big time preps, Fl Derby, SA Derby, Wood, ARK/LA derby, will now separate the pretenders from the contenders.
Mike
I think the timing might be bad for Cupid.
Got a late start(Dec 20th) being a May 19th foal.
Baffert said he needs time between races since he tends to get light.
Had 41 days between the maiden breaker and the Rebel and was cranked up to run a big race.
He\'s on a tighter schedule now with another prep and the Derby.
Given the timing,his bad breaks from the gate and the left hand turns coming into the stretch the Derby seems too soon on the calendar for him.
He might be really good later in the year though.
Tapit\'s stud fee won\'t be going down this year... Had 4 in that race.
Relative to Tapit\'s weak figs and overall achievements, an incredible sire.
With SBN running style would a jock change to Borel help this horse ala Street Sense & Mine that Bird?
I agree on that price. With only a maiden win on the resume and also shipping more power to you if you had him.
Kinda late in the process to try and change his tactics so I expect this one to be sending again in the next 2.
Mike
Re: Mor Spirit - think you mentioned in a post he was your early derby pick. I don\'t see it. Beat mostly sprinters and slow horses so far. Looks to me to be a slow grinder with limited acceleration. Yuck. Not for me. I love Baffert but prefer to see him training horses with natural speed, where he builds up their stamina and gets them to carry their brilliant speed. If u think about his top horses, almost all had early or at least positional gas. The old quarter horse guy likes speed.
Still time left. As you say, the last round of preps are usually meaningful. Unless of course a Pletcher horse wins the prep, in which case it is meaningless....
Rob
Regarding SBN : couldn\'t disagree more. Ugly is an understatement!
Think you\'ve inflated how much Cupid gave up at the start. Slight swerve top of the lane inconsequential.After watching Afleet Alex everything else is ho-hum.
He did show guts late and went out nicely.
Of all the deep closers ( SBN, CW & Creator) CW went the best route however outran through lane. Not impressed. Creator was never stopped,but was a solid 4w throughout the turn( possibly more) and ran on through the lane. He\'s a contender.
SBN\'s second turn an absolute horror show. Encouraged with his action through the lane. This one will only appreciate the extra distance.
Iron,
Re Cupid, have seen tons get beat after a break like that.After peeling thru layers of the splits for all three races at the distance, his race looks even better, faster than all other races early(under flank pressure)and finished closely as fast.Also noteworthy that those runners that chased Cupid early all imploded to finish far back.
SBN was stopped,steadied out badly, came with a decent run but it did not blow me away, a mulligan.
Rob,
Re Mor Spirit, have to see the SA Derby before evaluating him as he had an issue going into his last race, maybe was not his best. Have seen all his prior races and he was always more tactical than in his last.Also know he much prefers to be outside of horses as opposed to being pinned in like last.
See him as a sustained long winded type that displays wanting more ground,SA Derby should hint if he\'s fast enough to be a legit derby threat.
Are the last round of prep races more important than the 2nd to last? Does anyone have an opinion if Derby winners tend to be at peak in the likes of Florida, Louisiana, Santa Anita vs. FOY, Southwest, Rebel etc.?
If you go to the Archives section you will find 20+ years of sheets for Derby fields. The short answer is not many winners came in off backward moves.
Cupid came from behind in his first three races. He broke his maiden from behind.
I broke my maiden from behind also. Those first two races were 5.5 and 6f sprints which he didn\'t win. The mile maiden win he was 2nd for maybe a while against nothing. If they choose to rate in the Derby against better horses than he faced on Saturday and in a 20 horse field they will be looking for an idea if the horse can in this next one. I get your point and its something to consider. The San Felipe winner will also be sent....
Not seeing much consequence for Cupid\'s start in this race. Colt definitely has big time gas. Bottom side loaded speed types.This late in the game being that green more of a consequence.
Who the pacesetters were a factor that cannot be overlooked.
1.Spikes; way too slow coming in
2.Siding:confirmed in last 2 starts tends to slow down early.
3.Madtap: 2 races back big jump forward then jumps forward again. No real surprise he came up empty.
4.American Dubai: one of the many who have looked competitive who didn\'t pick their feet up.
Just wondering if the KY Derby exacta pool makes an allowance for 24/24? Cupid over Outlook up and down !!
What\'s 24/24 ?
Silver Charm Wrote:
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The mile maiden win he was 2nd for maybe a
> while against nothing.
The maiden win was a mile and sixteenth, and the DRF running lane has him breaking badly with a bobbled start and the rest of their calls were 4-4-3-1-1 by 5 1/4. The second maiden race was a 2nd place finish to Denman\'s Call who ran third in the San Vincente, but was a disappointing second as odds-on in a SA stake yesterday.
\"The mile maiden win he was 2nd for maybe a while against nothing.\"
Watch the race, Silver Charm.
No. If 24 wins, the exacta is filled out with the highest finishing non-24.
I stand corrected. Thanks