I don\'t believe on the surface yesterday told us too much. Danzig Candy stretched out nicely on a very speed friendly strip but can anyone really see him at 10 furlongs? The one two TAP Tampa show screams out his typical MO and those not only from Missouri will say show me the first Saturday in May.
So what do we think we know?
Brody\'s Cause by all reports was not cranked for yesterday\'s run, IMHO Romans thought he could make his big run as a conditioner and gobble up some points.
A total non effort, Tampa is a funny surface that many good horses have not run well on.
Exaggerator was sharpened up with his previous 7 furlong run and I for one thought he was really on his toes yesterday and the most logical winner. A tremendous powerful run was launched and then flattened out. Was this a winning move that the race track stopped or conditioning?
Mor Spirit is a tougher read with his grinding workmanlike running style. He was needing only a few points in his next 2 preps to assure a spot coming in to yesterday. Was it a public workout with a little run at the end to get by Exaggerator and BB will tighten the screws down for the SA Derby? Buffert has to be without a doubt the top dog at readying them for a TC campaign.D Wayne and Zito are long past relevant and Woody is long gone, there is only one guy who is there year in and year out and not just in the entry box.
Economic Model had the Brownie\'s chirping the past 2 weeks about how well he was doing and was sitting on a big one.
Shagaf seems to have some ability and fits very well pedigree wise but has a lot to do. The Maktoum\'s having been trying every training angle over the past 20 years to win a derby, they look like they have their best chance this year just in time. If Trump is elected president they won\'t be able to get into the country for next years derby!
In the spirit of Jimbo wherever he is these days I don\'t see anything coming out of Louisiana.
I guess it\'s east vs west in the battle of the undefeated and maybe a nice rivalry can develop.
8 weeks out and let\'s hope they all can stay sound.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Looked like they were experimenting with Exaggerator yesterday. He has a nice turn of foot and an early developed Curlin is a scary thought going 1 1/4 against this bunch.
May be worth a sawbuck or 2 at 25-1 in the futures.
Good Luck,
Joe B
My 2 Cents. Have bet Exaggerator 3 times now and wonder if he isn\'t just a Miler. Flattens out and can\'t finish. Is what it people hard to keep making excuses for him.
Mor Spirit I said here weeks ago he is going to be a Project to just get him to the Derby. Has NO acceleration and it is probably for various reasons. He has ability just don\'t know how sound he is. Probably has not developed in last 90 days. Hard to train.
Tampa winner has developed in last 90 days. How much more remains to be seen. Brodys Cause? Pretty bad effort. One more Prep left probably at Keeneland. These Derby Preps have become like these Election Results. The ones who win get slammed as being slow weak. The ones who lose claim victory as they got everything they want out of and we move on. I\'m keeping my eye on that Twirling Candy. Winning by daylight. Makes his own trip not his own excuses....
Both Destin and Candy received 100 Beyers and similar figs at other fig makers putting them in the TG 1 range, good for this years group so far.
Not really warm and fuzzy about yesterday\'s preps. Mor Spirit looked particularly grindy after having a work hiccup about ear plugs but heard otherwise.Brodys Cause and Exaggerator do not seem like serious threats.
Still seems wide open.
No idea if Danzing Candy can stretch out, but not sure how much speed there is in this crop. The two favs look like stalkers and the others are off the pace types. I could see him getting away. Looked like there was more there, as he ran with Mor Spirit in the gallop out.
Really did not like how Exaggertor shut down immediately and the jock took him to the outside of the track. First thought was he we hurt.
Can\'t put much stake in a track record when there are two horses within a length. And Tampa is Pletcher\'s playground.
Looking forward to seeing Suddenbreakingnews run next weekend..
Lets see what this guy bring\'s to the table..
Frank, I missed your pick 4 yesterday,as I would be lying if I told you I have not tailed you a couple of times..
Danzing Candy looked good and might keep going.Big long striding horse.
Bottom of his pedigree going back a few generations there is a lot of long distance grass breeding.
Exxagerator looks like a sprinter miler going back to last year.
Could be wrong but I don\'t see more distance helping him.
Mor Spirit probably wants more distance but in a twenty horse field he\'d need a
lot of things to go right.He has no burst/turn of foot so he\'d have to avoid traffic.
Destin\'s full brother Creative Cause did his best running at 8.5f\'s and yesterday in deep stretch he looked gassed(from the head on drifting out/in)so he may be at his limits distance wise.
Gotta see them all go nine furlongs but I want Danzing Candy out of those four if I had to pick one now as a Derby horse.
TGJB where do I hit the \"Like\" button here?
It was a good day to miss me, I could not decide on a post of any of the 8 pick 4\'s I played all unsuccessfully. OUCHIE!!!
I was hoping SBN would be a bit under the radar. But third choice in the future pool says that ship has sailed.
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Danzing Candy looked good and might keep going.Big
> long striding horse.
>
> Bottom of his pedigree going back a few
> generations there is a lot of long distance grass
> breeding.
2nd dam is the dam of Better Talk Now, who raced for 15, maybe 20 years and won like 50 grade 1 routes, including the BC Turf. I\'m pretty sure I bet against him every time.
> Exxagerator looks like a sprinter miler going back
> to last year.
> Could be wrong but I don\'t see more distance
> helping him.
he\'s too small.
> Mor Spirit probably wants more distance but in a
> twenty horse field he\'d need a
> lot of things to go right.He has no burst/turn of
> foot so he\'d have to avoid traffic.
I disliked this one then kind of got on board after his last. but no burst/turn of foot is probably an understatement. final 1/8 was good but not great. the owner did say before the race that Bullet Bob told him not to be disappointed if he lost. said it wouldn\'t matter, not the goal.
> Destin\'s full brother Creative Cause did his best
> running at 8.5f\'s and yesterday in deep stretch he
> looked gassed(from the head on drifting out/in)so
> he may be at his limits distance wise.
home in 6.31 and 6.55. five or six lengths in ground loss makes the race a bit better than it looks, but eight and a half furlongs is probably best.
> Gotta see them all go nine furlongs but I want
> Danzing Candy out of those four if I had to pick
> one now as a Derby horse.
Rebel will be an interesting race from what I can see. Sudden Breaking News not the only one that could take a big step forward. Whitmore, Siding Spring, Cupid, Ralis, Discreetness, American Dubai.
Hate to admit this but Zulu, at the future price, was intriguing. I know Pletcher has struggled at the derby but at 26-1, he looks like he could improve and may not have left too much on the table. A move up in the Florida Derby(not a huge one though) would have me really liking him on derby day.
Would love to get your views on those.
Cupid could be any kind. Not sure he beat much in his last, but Baffert does so well at Oaklawn.
Ralis ran great in the Hopeful. Then a whole lotta nothing and a lot of time off. Would be asking a lot for a win against a more accomplished in form bunch.
American Dubai was the best of the speed in the last, but the pace wasn\'t that taxing. We might have seen his best.
Discreetness was crazy wide on the first turn, and spotted the field a point of weight. This one has every right to improve.
Whitmore ran second best by a mile. Big run wide on the final turn. That\'s a winning move in most races.
SBN was so much better than the field in the last part of the race, a bit of a bounce might be expected.
Edit: Forgot Cherry Wine will be in there as well. He will by vying for favoritism.
Mike,
Strange year in that there are two undefeated \"big name\" colts (Nyquist and Mohaymen) and many still feel it is wide open.
Only mid-March but tend to agree.
As for this weekend\'s preps, was really hoping to start to fall in love with somebody, but very hard to see that. Like many on the board seem to agree based on posts, the San Felipe winner likely best, but then again two speedballs were taken back early for god knows what reason and two other pace pressers were also well off a mediocre pace. And the track seemed to be playing a bit skewed to front runners although will wait for bias figures to confirm. So, the 100 Beyer was achieved under optimal conditions.
Had Exaggerator high on my list. Thought the San vicente was a perfect prep race and expected him to fire big. Strange ride by Kent taking him way back to last, only to make big middle move and flatten out late. Glass half full = huge middle move in a race where nobody made a single move and the frontrunner wired. Glass half empty - a horse that has shown signs of distance limitations before and is smallish in size, once again had no punch late.
Brody\'s Cause - disgusting. Ran a handful of steps. Hard to imagine a worse race and when you specifically target a two race prep schedule, you need to do better. Scratch him off the list.
Rob
Rob,
No real standouts, figure wise.Moyhayem nice horse could be faster than showing, Nyquist same boat. Have not seen any real serious performance yet from my perspective.My barometer has always been the 9f preps, so it\'s time now to see which ones finish with authority.
Sat preps at Tampa and Santa were ok,nice figs were earned as both are looking in the TG 1-2 range, good for this year so far.Interesting that TAP has 3 horses moving forward at this time as opposed to being over the top. Hear Zulu will be redirected from Fl Derby to avoid Mohaymen and Nyquist.Zulu reportedly a \"wild child\" that went into FOY gate somewhat spent, may be under rated.TAP two top finishers at Tampa ran decent.Of interest there, Johnny V took off winner Destin to ride Outwork who was dusting Destin in morning workouts(TAP entourage bet serious $$ only to lose to stablemate)
At SA, Candy got loose and ran well.Had surface dead honest. Candy needs to get hooked imo before being considered a true 10f derby threat.
Mor Spirit was my horse prior to hiccup in training before San Fel.Ear plug thing was bullspit, hear he bled or was making noise like he flipped his palate.Looked very grindy and without quick on Sat, backing off till next race.
Derby future pools look like awful value to me relative to figs and accomplishment.Figs from 5 good sources do not distinguish any horse at this time and haven\'t seen anything to dispute that.
Mike
Mike,
I heard from local TAP owner that JV absolutely had his choice of the 2. No secrets in TAP barn and a few upstate dollars went into that pool. I\'m more inclined to believe it was the Repole entourage that did the real damage at the windows. As you know and I\'m sure have witnessed at NY tracks he travels with every Vinny Boom Batts from the neighborhood!
JV seems to be winding down his career in Craig Perret fashion, riding by appointment. Speaking of CP whom is nominated for the HOF this year and IMHO is very deserving.
Frank D.
Frank,
TAP really doesn\'t try to hide his horses, how can he anyway. They train in sets most of the time and a zillion people watch and work there. The \"monkey\" has a zillion gambling buddies to boot.
Mike
Rob:
Exaggerator gets side swiped by Smokey Image coming out of the gate. May have changed the strategy. Eye popping middle move into a :46 half. Not sure there\'s a 3yo colt out there with a better turn of foot.
If he finishes on Saturday, one doesn\'t get 24-1 in the futures.
Good Luck,
Joe B
It\'s still pretty early. Whitmore intrigued me enough to put a future bet down, and i pressed it again yesterday. I\'m not a fan of future bets in general, but i like how this one is coming around. He had some trouble in the southwest that no one is mentioning, he broke slow and got stuck down on the inside behind a bunch of horses, ate a lot of dirt and ran up on heels, had to steady pretty hard, switch out, made a quick wide move and sustained it to nearly win. Broke his maiden at CD and has nice breeding for the 1 1/4. Yet to be seen if he is good enough.
MJ,
Suddenbreakingnews took a ton of money in the last pool,surprising for a horse that races from way back.Do not love the race SBN and Whitmore come out of.It featured a fast pace(relatively speaking) and a pedestrian 32.84 last 5/16ths which made SBN and Whitmore appear to make a big late run.At the prices, agree Whitmore would be a better shot to take.
Mo Tom,out of the FG race,another horse that the trip guys like but bad trips in slow races just a trap imo.
Not sure it\'s early anymore with all of them entering the gate for their final prep next out.
Mike
It was a pedestrian last 5/16ths, but it was also the fastest last 5/16ths, and opening half, and mile of any of the several routes - as it should have been. The best horses were in there.
And SBN came home a lot faster, being 8 1/2 back to finish almost 3 in front. This while being 7W on at least part of the turn. And as MJ pointed out, Whitmore had his own trouble to overcome.
So, while the race was slow on the clock, it wasn\'t that slow, for the top two on that track.
AJ,
Agree,for this year not too slow but the figure still lines up in that TG 3-4 range(Beyer 93/TF109) with several other so so preps.Many to choose from in that range may be sitting on a forward move.
At 42-1 or something, not the worst idea.
Mike
It remains to be seen if he is good enough. But i liked what i saw, and i liked what i learned about him after he caught my eye. So i took him at 50-1 and pressed that some more in the future pool this weekend. Trainer is underrated too. Has done nice work with young horses.
Future bets are a bad deal most of the time IMO. But if he were to win the rebel or run really well, i can sell all or part of these for a profit. Thats kind of my MO with these things. 40-1 or 50-1 gives a lot of wiggle room. So what the hell.
I wanted to fade the favorites, but didn\'t see a straight price good enough, so I made a small Exag/Mor/Greenpoint box. Took Motts filly in the Oaks, he doesn\'t need more than one prep.
I was looking at Greenpoint in the last two pools but couldn\'t quite get there at those odds.I did use him in some exactas in Pool 2 though.
He\'d be really interesting with a forward move in the La Derby.
He was the one horse out of that awful Juvenile with an excuse(came out of the race with an eye infection) that I thought could be a nice three three year old router.
Played Pool 2 Danzing Candy 28-1 after his allowance win and in some exactas.Gun Runner in exactas only.Thought 25-1 on him was too short without having seen a 3yo race.Nothing in this last pool though on anyone.
Mohaymen sheet looks really nice but I keep going back to that 9f Remsen where he has an absolutely perfect trip but in deep stretch is drifting out and in.Could be he was a green two year old but I\'m thinking he might just be maxing out at 9f\'s.
Take a look at the head on replay.
Future pools can be fun conversation starters, but the sentiment that they are bad bets probably right. I got myself some Danzing Candy this weekend and an exacta with Mor spirit due to his grinding style that may come in handy if he can get himself in a good position around the final turn. Was of the opinion Brody\'s Cause was being hyped way too much and he indeed had nothing to show though it was his first as a 3yo. Feel the same way abut GPC. As for Mohaymen, count me in the camp of \"he seems to have topped out\". Still undecided about the Pletcher horses especially after the Materiality disappointment of mine last year...kinda sworn off him though Zulu seems interesting. Can\'t say take any of these predictions to the bank, but it is what it is.
Interesting that the three likely favorites: Whitmore, Cherry Wine, and SBN drew 12,13, and 14 respectively. All three have done well coming from the back, but it seems to hurt Whitmore the most.
Seems 3w4w was at least fair if not friendly on the sealed track Southwest day. Thinking 5w6w may have been even more so as this was the only full field to really test that part of the track. Going to at least try and beat SBN in the Rebel.
Miff wrote:
Suddenbreakingnews took a ton of money in the last pool,surprising for a horse that races from way back
_________________________
He actually raced from the back that day b/c of the post position as Von Hemel discussed post race. Prior to that in his races at Remington, he was much, much closer to the pace. Poor post again and I think you know his strategy for the Rebel.
This race should teach us several lessons for the Derby test.
Don\'t know what pp\'s you use, SBN has been last or next to last early in 5 of 6 starts, the other race he\'s up close in 24.4.